No abstract

[1] The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJOassociated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture. Citation: Donald, A

The bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) is the natural reservoir of Puumala virus (PUUV), a species in the genus Hantavirus. PUUV is the etiologic agent of nephropathia epidemica, a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Factors that influence hantavirus transmission within host populations are not well understood. We evaluated a number of factors influencing on the association of increased PUUV infection in bank voles captured in a region in northern Sweden endemic for the virus. Logistic regression showed four factors that together correctly predicted 80% of the model outcome: age, body mass index, population phase during sampling (increase, peak, or decline/low), and gender. This analysis highlights the importance of population demography in the successful circulation of hantavirus. The chance of infection was greatest during the peak of the population cycle, implying that the likelihood of exposure to hantavirus increases with increasing population density.

Puumala virus (PUUV), genus hantavirus, causes nephropathia epidemica, a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans. In this study, bank voles, the natural reservoir of PUUV, were captured at locations of previous human PUUV exposure and paired controls within a region of high incidence in northern Sweden. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of environmental factors on the abundance of bank voles and the occurrence of PUUV. The total number of voles and the number of PUUV-infected voles did not differ between locations of previous human PUUV exposure and paired controls. The number of bank voles expressing antibodies to PUUV infection increased linearly with total bank vole abundance implying density independent transmission. Using principal component and partial correlation analysis, we found that particular environmental characteristics associated with old-growth moist forests (i.e., those dominated by Alectoria spp., Picea abies, fallen wood, and Vaccinium myrtillus) were also associated with increased abundance of bank vole and hence the number of PUUV-infected bank voles, whereas there were no correlations with factors associated with dry environments (i.e., Pinus sylvestris and V. vitis-idea). This suggests that circulation and persistence of PUUV within bank vole populations was influenced by habitat factors. Future modeling of risk of exposure to hantavirus and transmission of PUUV within vole populations should include the influence of these factors.