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Small island developing states (SIDS), such as Barbados, must continually adapt in the face of uncertain external drivers. These include demand for exports, tourism demand, and extreme weather events. Climate change introduces further uncertainty into the external drivers. To address the challenge, we present a policy-oriented simulation model that builds upon prior work by the authors and their collaborators. Intended for policy analysis, it follows a robust decision making (RDM) philosophy of identifying policies that lead to positive outcomes across a wide range of external changes. While the model can benefit from further development, it illustrates the importance for SIDS of incorporating climate change into national planning. Even without climate change, normal variation in export and tourism demand drive divergent trajectories for the economy and external debt. With climate change, increasing storm damage adds to external debt as the loss of productive capital and need to rebuild drives imports.

International climate finance plays a key role in enabling the implementation of adaptation measures. However, while there is a common metric for gauging the effectiveness of finance for mitigation – greenhouse gas emission reduction per unit of funding – no corresponding metric exists for adaptation. Instead, assessments of what works best in adaptation finance focus either on procedural aspects of funding modalities, such as equity in the allocation of funding, or on the extent to which specific adaptation activities produce the desired results. This mixed methods systematic review aims to assess the effectiveness of adaptation finance and bridge the gap between those two approaches. It involves a transparent and comprehensive synthesis of the academic and grey literature on how different characteristics of adaptation projects in sub-Saharan Africa – and finance for those projects – affect adaptation outcomes, particularly in terms of risk and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Finalised adaptation projects funded by a set of the multilateral climate funds and two bilateral donors (United Kingdom and Sweden) are the focus of this review. The findings can help inform the future design and implementation of adaptation activities as well as funding decisions.

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