BackgroundThe first autochthonous Chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia was reported in September 2014. Three months later, every town in the Caribbean region was affected, including the bordering towns of Ovejas and Corozal, in the department of Sucre. The objective of the study was to analyze and compare the temporal dynamics of the outbreak of Chikungunya in two towns of the department of Sucre.MethodsHouseholds with suspicious cases with clinical symptomatology for Chikungunya were enrolled. In each house an epidemiological questionnaire was applied to collect economic and social information and methods for vector control.ResultsThe study analyzed data collected between 09/01/2014 and 01/31/2015; 458 families in Corozal and 516 families in Ovejas were identified with Chikungunya cases. Estimated attack rates were 10,621 cases and 1640 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in Ovejas and Corozal, respectively. The 75-day survival curve was 27.2% lower (0.632, CI = 0.614–0.651) in Ovejas than in Corozal (0.904, CI = 0.891–0.917). After 120 days, both curves showed a stable horizontal slope, close to a survival probability of 0.54, indicating the end of the epidemic period. The log-rank test (X 2 = 94.6, 1fd, p-value = 0.000) showed the improved survival of Chikungunya in the town of Corozal. The relative risk between the two towns was 0.863 (CI = 0.809–0.921; p-value < 0.001).ConclusionsThe dynamics of the temporal distribution of CHIKV could be influenced by socioeconomic and preventable risk factors. Poor socioeconomic conditions such as the lack and poor efficiency of water supply and waste collection services could be determining factors in the proliferation of CHIKV. The survival analysis proved to be a suitable method for studying the presentation of CHIKV and can be applied to other prevalent vector-borne diseases such as the ZIKA and Dengue.

BackgroundThe Zika virus disease (ZVD) has had a huge impact on public health in Colombia for the numbers of people affected and the presentation of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly cases associated to ZVD.MethodsA retrospective descriptive study was carried out, we analyze the epidemiological situation of ZVD and its association with microcephaly and GBS during a 21-month period, from October 2015 to June 2017. The variables studied were: (i) ZVD cases, (ii) ZVD cases in pregnant women, (iii) laboratory-confirmed ZVD in pregnant women, (iv) ZVD cases associated with microcephaly, (v) laboratory-confirmed ZVD associated with microcephaly, and (vi) ZVD associated to GBS cases. Average number of cases, attack rates (AR) and proportions were also calculated. The studied variables were plotted by epidemiological weeks and months. The distribution of ZVD cases in Colombia was mapped across the time using Kernel density estimator and QGIS software; we adopted Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) and the Gaussian Kernel to estimate the number of Guillain Barre cases given the number of ZVD cases.ResultsOne hundred eight thousand eighty-seven ZVD cases had been reported in Colombia, including 19,963 (18.5%) in pregnant women, 710 (0.66%) associated with microcephaly (AR, 4.87 cases per 10,000 live births) and 453 (0.42%) ZVD associated to GBS cases (AR, 41.9 GBS cases per 10,000 ZVD cases). It appears the cases of GBS increased in parallel with the cases of ZVD, cases of microcephaly appeared 5 months after recognition of the outbreak. The kernel density map shows that throughout the study period, the states most affected by the Zika outbreak in Colombia were mainly San Andrés and Providencia islands, Casanare, Norte de Santander, Arauca and Huila. The KRR shows that there is no proportional relationship between the number of GBS and ZVD cases. During the cross validation, the RMSE achieved for the second order polynomial kernel, the linear kernel, the sigmoid kernel, and the Gaussian kernel are 9.15, 9.2, 10.7, and 7.2 respectively.ConclusionsThis study updates the epidemiological analysis of the ZVD situation in Colombia describes the geographical distribution of ZVD and shows the functional relationship between ZVD cases and GBS.

BackgroundNotwithstanding the strong epidemiological impact of the Chikungunya in the Colombian Caribbean, in 2014, not the entire population were affected in the same way. This study describe the demographic, socio-economic, clinical and epidemiological aspects of the de Chikungunya in Ovejas and Corozal, two neighboring municipalities with high vulnerability in health in the Colombian Caribbean.MethodsA cross-sectional study was performed in February 2015. A convenience sampling was carried out in 971 families affected with chikungunya. Also, a socio-demographics, clinical and epidemiological questionnaire was carried out for people who met the definition of suspected Chikungunya clinical case. For the statistical analysis, data and variables, frequencies, proportions and means were compared in the two municipalities studied. A logistic regression model was constructed to explain the effect of factors studied on the risk of family infection (RFI) or likelihood of contagion within each household. Was used the software EpiInfo 7.2.2.2 and a significance level with p-value < 0.05.ResultsIn Ovejas, 516 households were affected by Chikungunya, 48% (1269/2631) of their inhabitants became sick; in Corozal, 455 families were affected and 42% (839/1999) of their members became sick. The evolution of the epidemic curves of Chikungunya outbreak was different in the two studied areas, the disease was more aggressive in Ovejas. Ten variables were pre-selected by univariate analysis to explain the RFI by Chikungunya, and were integrated into a logistic regression model. The final model was constructed with the following variables: municipality, gender, occupation, family income, use of repellent and fumigation. The logistic model was assessed as appropriate; however, the biases in the selection of the surveyed dwellings and in the selection of symptomatic patients could influence the results.ConclusionsIt was demonstrated the epidemiological complexity of Chikungunya and the serious problem caused in populations with high vulnerability in health. The accurate association observed in the logistic regression model suggests the role of the factors studied as determinant in the rate of infection of the Chikungunya; coverage problems and surveillance in health care, demographic aspect, socio-economic problems and lack of preventive measures could explains the risk of family infection by Chikungunya in some areas tropics of Colombia.Trial registrationnumber approval 007–2016 ethics committee-IIBT.