The Bayesian concept is complex and contrary to intuition, but it is fundamental in the practice of medicine as well as in biotechnological development. We expect that a tragedy of ignoring the Bayesian concept will result clear to the reader who should acquire the tools to recognize its meaning, as well as, its use; but especially, to visualize the serious consequences of ignoring it. The physician is not mystically fascinated for knowing what percentage of patients who has prostate cancer have no symptoms (47%), urinary frequency (38%), urinary urgency (10%), decreased urine stream (23%) or hematuria (1.4%). What the physician and every patient want and vitally need to know is the probability of having prostate cancer, giving that he has one or more of those symptoms. Keywords: Medical Errors; Iatrogenic disease; Sensitivity and specificity; Diagnostic Techniques and procedures

The purpose of this work is to provide evidence to the scientific community that there is solid scientific knowledge available to tame the pandemic, which is mainly a behavioral problem that requires cybernetics through behavioral engineering. Scientifically it is clear that the problem of the pandemic originates in human behavior and misinformation. Behavioral problems are addressed by cybernetics through behavioral engineering. Aristotelian causes of the pandemic are aberrant behavior. This is the field of battle and the obsession of the subject is the rise of the neurotransmitter dopamine. The question is not what is the probability that a patient with COVID-19 has a certain symptom or sign? Rather it is to calculate the probability that a patient with a certain sign or symptom has COVID-19. Without grasping the differential equations modeled by Kermack and McKendrick, it is impossible to have an idea of what is happening in the pandemic. Our straightforward theoretical approach is to use the wild unmodified SARS-CoV-2 to produce immunity by the simple expedient of diminishing the amount of the inoculum to the minimum minimorum. The problem with allowing people, deliberately attempting herd immunity, is that it has the dire effect that a high percentage will necessarily die. It is a matter of competence between two exponential functions. On one hand the exponential reproduction of the virus, and on the other hand, the exponential production of antibodies and activation of T cells. The aim is to diminish the amount of the inoculum to the minimum minimorum capable of infecting the minimum susceptible cell subpopulation. In this manner, herd immunity could be reached, which would allow a parsimonical response in the viral exponential growth that would not overwhelm the exponential immune response. It is expected that susceptible subjects could be infected in a variolation modality through the universal use of masks, maximizing the distance, rather than in a noregulated exposure of a putative low-risk segment of the population. In the logic of the decision, we must distinguish a desideratum from what is physically, economically, legally, and politically implementable. It is a matter of policy-making supported by science and law instead of doxastic logic based on misinformation and bigotry. It is a matter of policy enforcement by cybernetics, by behavior engineering, not of a recommendation. The guidelines, if they are to be implemented, depend on the application of cybernetics, and behavioral engineering. The apodictic inference from fallacies, in a doxastic and desiderative logic, is the origin of disinformation. Keywords: COVID-19 Inoculum; Bayes Theorem; Cybernetics; Variolation; Herd immunity

We Hypothesize that It should be intuitively inferred that the behavior of the pandemics corresponds to the prediction of the Maxwell Boltzmann distribution, which is a direct function of population density. In a higher organizational metalevel, it is analogous to the Brownian movement effect, in which the possibility of being observed is determined by the observational power of the instrument. In this case, it corresponds to the sensibility and sensitivity of the probe as well as the prevalence of the arbitrary states. The states are formally considered as a partition in probability theory; both in the Kolmogorov and frequentist approach. All these become subsumed to the Bayes theorem applied to recursive conditional probability.

Multiple tragic biophysical errors in relation to hypertension in surgery and medicine, constitute conceptual atrocities: 1) Many physicians believe that perfusion decays with the fourth power of the radius, which is the result of a doxastic misunderstanding of the Poiseuille equation. These phenomena are even more transcendent in the case of surgical situations when the homeostatic metastability is more critical and with less margin to be compensated. 2) Furthermore, when seen the occlusion of an artery, frequently, instead of measuring the radius, they measure the apparent cross-sectional area. 3) By reducing the driving pressure with antihypertensive drugs, we are decreasing axial pressure in the flow and consequently the perfusion. 4) The sphygmomanometer measures transmural pressure and not driving pressure which is what produces perfusion. 5) The main hemodynamic cause of damage is not transmural hypertension but Laplacian tension. 6) The damage to the arteries does not depend on transmural pressure but on the energy density per time, in units of Joules per cubic meter per second, or Watts per cubic meter. 7) Hypertension, ceteris parivus, increases perfusion. 8) The baroreceptors do not respond to transmural pressure but to Laplacian arterial tension. 9) The brain and the heart have self-regulation of their perfusion, but vasodilators increase perfusion in other tissues, reducing cerebral and coronary perfusion due to the stolen effect. 10). Strictly, all gradients constitute potential energy, as happens in the instances of the concentration gradients, temperature gradients, pressure gradients, and electrical gradients. 11) The derivative of pressure with respect to time, that is the change in pressure due to change in time, is the derivative of the work per volume per time (change in work density due to time), that is, power density. 12) What determines the perfusion is the axial gradient, not of pressure but energy. 13) Hyperbolically if we consider taking the pressure of a pachyderm, we would obtain readings significantly higher. 14) Pressure is, in reality, energy density, which means, energy per infinitesimal unit of volume. 15) The venous return consists of the blood flow returning to the right heart. Because the input of the right side must equal its output, then in the steady-state situation, the cardiac outputs of the right and left sides are essentially equal. Consequently, the systemic venous return matches the systemic cardiac output. The venous return should be equal to or less than the cardiac output. The heart, as a pump, cannot expel a volume that has not been received; notwithstanding, in the case of valve regurgitation, the heart can expel a fraction of the venous return twice. The clinical physician should ask himself or herself: Is the preload volume in the EDV or the pressure at the time of the EDV which has been diminished before starting the isovolumic contraction?

A ribonucleoside analog MK-4482/EIDD-2801 blocks SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ferrets and might be able to diminish transmission until vaccineinduced or naturally acquired protective herd immunity is reached [1]. As skinner pointed out, behavioral problems have to be solved through behavioral engineering [2]. Cybernetics has full application in the present condition. As in alcohol consumption, smoking, drugs, gun crimes, wars, and sexually acquired diseases, the teleological Aristotelian causes are not tobacco, drugs, and any other issue, but the aberrant behavior. The situation is not trivial and involves non-classic logic and other mathematical logics [3,4]. The neural topography corresponds to the nucleus accumbens. The latter is the battlefield, and the subject’s obsession is the rise of the neurotransmitter dopamine [3,4]. In general, people are very demanding from their governments; nevertheless, at the same time, they are deeply tolerant with their aberrant behavior promoting the dissemination of the SARSCoV-2 [4,5]. This paper examines how to deal with this problem from a scientific perspective, considering probability methods and classical and doxastic logic, using the Parsimony Principle aiming to reach immunity by minimizing the inoculum.