Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19 free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national ``re-opening" plan released in July 2021. Here we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures --- assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 70% to minimise public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.
Background A gonococcal vaccine is urgently needed due to increasing gonorrhoea incidence and emerging multidrug-resistant gonococcal strains worldwide. Men who have sex with men (MSM) have among the highest incidences of gonorrhoea and may be a key target population for vaccination when available. Methods An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model was used to simulate Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission in a population of 10,000 MSM. The impact of vaccination on gonorrhoea prevalence was assessed. Results With a gonococcal vaccine of 100% or 50% protective efficacy, gonorrhoea prevalence could be reduced by 94% or 62%, respectively, within 2 years if 30% of MSM are vaccinated on presentation for STI testing. Elimination of gonorrhoea is possible within 8 years with vaccines of ≥50% efficacy over 2 years, providing a booster vaccination is available every 3 years on average. A vaccine's impact may be reduced if it is not effective at all anatomical sites. Conclusions Our study indicates that with a vaccine of modest efficacy and an immunisation strategy that targets MSM presenting for STI screening, the prevalence of gonorrhoea in this population could be rapidly and substantially reduced.
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