The foundation for effective case management is rooted in the use of a validated risk assessment.The present study sought to validate the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) among a sample of probationers and parolees (n = 391) in the state of Iowa. Scores across the DRAOR domains were able to differentiate between recidivists and non-recidivists when examining technical violations and any recidivism, although were unable to differentiate between those offenders who were re-arrested and those who remained crime free. An examination of the psychometric properties of the scale suggested that the DRAOR is a valid risk assessment tool. Additionally, Stable dynamic risk factors represented the strongest predictor of technical violations, although were unable to predict rearrest. The predictive utility of the various domains (i.e. Stable, Acute, and Protective) suggested that case managers would benefit from utilizing the DRAOR in the everyday supervision of offenders. U.S. DRAOR VALIDATIONiii Acknowledgements I am extremely grateful to my supervisor, Dr. Ralph Serin, for providing me with this opportunity and for the constant support and feedback throughout the project. I am also thankful for the advice and feedback from my committee member, Dr. Shelley Brown who's comments undoubtedly improved the quality of this project. I also appreciate the knowledge and perspective shared by Dr. Diana Majury. This project would not have been possible without the cooperation of the Iowa Department of Corrections. I truly appreciate the assistance that Dr. Lettie Prell provided throughout the various stages of the project.A special thank you to Caleb Lloyd who provided unwavering support throughout the duration of the project. I am also grateful for the efforts of Mark Girvan and Eric Filleter who assisted with preparing the data.
Relying on the results of validated risk assessments is vital to evidence-based decision making in corrections. Advancements in the approach to risk assessment has seen an emphasis on measuring dynamic risk factors alongside protective factors, as both are expected to be useful for identifying treatment targets and measuring changes in risk over time. Despite these advancements, empirical evidence of change on dynamic risk and protective factors remains limited. Utilizing a sample of 3,976 White and Black men offenders on community supervision with a minimum of three waves of assessment, this thesis tested a three-step analytic approach to establish whether: (a) the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) measured the constructs of dynamic risk and protective factors consistently over time, (b) there was evidence of trajectories of within-offender change throughout community supervision, and (c) individual trajectories of change predicted recidivism above and beyond baseline DRAOR score and static risk. Results indicated that the DRAOR was measuring the same constructs in the same way over repeated assessments. Change was observed across each of the DRAOR domains, indicating that on average, offenders were expected to decrease in stable and acute risk over time, and increase in their protect score. Variations in the rates of change were unrelated to static risk, age, and race, but change on each DRAOR domain was partially explained by scores on the remaining domains. Change trajectories were significant predictors of revocations of community supervision after considering the effects of initial score, static risk, and age, but change trajectories were not related to new convictions. The findings indicate that the DRAOR is sensitive to change and First, I want to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Ralph Serin. I am truly grateful for the years of mentorship that you provided, which were filled with support, advice, understanding, and opportunities. I am appreciative of the constructive feedback that I received from my committee members, Dr. Shelley Brown and Dr. Julie Blais, throughout the development of this research. I also wish to thank Dr. Ryan Labrecque, my external examiner, and Dr. Katharine Kelly, my internal examiner, for contributing their knowledge to strengthen the overall quality of this document. This project would not have been possible without the support of Iowa Department of Corrections. In particular, I want to thank the members of the Research Department at the Central Office for their role in preparing and updating the datasets and always being willing to answer my questions. Finally, the unwavering support, patience, and encouragement from my family and friends made accomplishing this milestone possible. Thank you for being a constant source of inspiration.
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