Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drugresistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FindingsOn the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4•95 million (3•62-6•57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1•27 million (95% UI 0•911-1•71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27•3 deaths per 100 000 (20•9-35•3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6•5 deaths (4•3-9•4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1•5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3•57 million (2•62-4•78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillinresistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributa...

Bloodstream infections caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella are a major public health concern in Africa, causing ~49,600 deaths every year. The most common Salmonella enterica pathovariant associated with invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella disease is Salmonella Typhimurium sequence type (ST)313. It has been proposed that antimicrobial resistance and genome degradation has contributed to the success of ST313 lineages in Africa, but the evolutionary trajectory of such changes was unclear. Here, to define the evolutionary dynamics of ST313, we sub-sampled from two comprehensive collections of Salmonella isolates from African patients with bloodstream infections, spanning 1966 to 2018. The resulting 680 genome sequences led to the discovery of a pan-susceptible ST313 lineage (ST313 L3), which emerged in Malawi in 2016 and is closely related to ST313 variants that cause gastrointestinal disease in the United Kingdom and Brazil. Genomic analysis revealed degradation events in important virulence genes in ST313 L3, which had not occurred in other ST313 lineages. Despite arising only recently in the clinic, ST313 L3 is a phylogenetic intermediate between ST313 L1 and L2, with a characteristic accessory genome. Our in-depth genotypic and phenotypic characterization identifies the crucial loss-of-function genetic events that occurred during the stepwise evolution of invasive S. Typhimurium across Africa.

Background Aetiology and outcomes of sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) are poorly described; we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the available data. Methods Systematic searches of PubMed and Scopus were undertaken to identify prospective studies recruiting adults (> 13 years) with community-acquired sepsis in sSA post-2000. Random effects meta-analysis of in-hospital and 30-day mortality was undertaken and available aetiology data also summarised by random effects meta-analysis. Results Fifteen studies of 2800 participants were identified. Inclusion criteria were heterogeneous. The majority of patients were HIV-infected, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis was the most common cause of blood stream infection where sought. Pooled in-hospital mortality for Sepsis-2-defined sepsis and severe sepsis was 19% (95% CI 12–29%) and 39% (95% CI 30–47%) respectively, and sepsis mortality was associated with the proportion of HIV-infected participants. Mortality and morbidity data beyond 30 days were absent. Conclusions Sepsis in sSA is dominated by HIV and tuberculosis, with poor outcomes. Optimal antimicrobial strategies, including the role of tuberculosis treatment, are unclear. Long-term outcome data are lacking. Standardised sepsis diagnostic criteria that are easily applied in low-resource settings are needed to establish an evidence base for sepsis management in sSA. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-019-2501-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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