Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a promising technique for field identification of substandard and falsified drugs because it is portable, rapid, nondestructive, and can differentiate many formulated pharmaceutical products. Portable NIR spectrometers rely heavily on chemometric analyses based on libraries of NIR spectra from authentic pharmaceutical samples. However, it is difficult to build comprehensive product libraries in many low- and middle-income countries due to the large numbers of manufacturers who supply these markets, frequent unreported changes in materials sourcing and product formulation by the manufacturers, and general lack of cooperation in providing authentic samples. In this work, we show that a simple library of lab-formulated binary mixtures of an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) with two diluents gave good performance on field screening tasks, such as discriminating substandard and falsified formulations of the API. Six data analysis models, including principal component analysis and support-vector machine classification and regression methods and convolutional neural networks, were trained on binary mixtures of acetaminophen with either lactose or ascorbic acid. While the models all performed strongly in cross-validation (on formulations similar to their training set), they individually showed poor robustness for formulations outside the training set. However, a predictive algorithm based on the six models, trained only on binary samples, accurately predicts whether the correct amount of acetaminophen is present in ternary mixtures, genuine acetaminophen formulations, adulterated acetaminophen formulations, and falsified formulations containing substitute APIs. This data analytics approach may extend the utility of NIR spectrometers for analysis of pharmaceuticals in low-resource settings.