We systematically surveyed period variations of superhumps in SU UMa-type dwarf novae based on newly obtained data and past publications. In many systems, the evolution of the superhump period is found to be composed of three distinct stages: an early evolutionary stage with a longer superhump period, a middle stage with systematically varying periods, and a final stage with a shorter, stable superhump period. During the middle stage, many systems with superhump periods of less than 0.08 d show positive period derivatives. We present observational characteristics of these stages and give greatly improved statistics. Contrary to an earlier claim, we found no clear evidence for a variation of period derivatives among different superoutbursts of the same object. We present an interpretation that the lengthening of the superhump period is a result of the outward propagation of an eccentricity wave, which is limited by the radius near the tidal truncation. We interpret that late-stage superhumps are rejuvenated excitation of a 3:1 resonance when superhumps in the outer disk are effectively quenched. The general behavior of the period variation, particularly in systems with short orbital periods, appears to follow a scenario proposed in Kato, Maehara, and Monard (2008, PASJ, 60, L23). We also present an observational summary of WZ Sge-type dwarf novae. Many of them have shown long-enduring superhumps during a post-superoutburst stage having longer periods than those during the main superoutburst. The period derivatives in WZ Sge-type dwarf novae are found to be strongly correlated with the fractional superhump excess, or consequently with the mass ratio. WZ Sge-type dwarf novae with a long-lasting rebrightening or with multiple rebrightenings tend to have smaller period derivatives, and are excellent candidates for those systems around or after the period minimum of evolution of cataclysmic variables.

How black holes accrete surrounding matter is a fundamental yet unsolved question in astrophysics. It is generally believed that matter is absorbed into black holes via accretion disks, the state of which depends primarily on the mass-accretion rate. When this rate approaches the critical rate (the Eddington limit), thermal instability is supposed to occur in the inner disk, causing repetitive patterns of large-amplitude X-ray variability (oscillations) on timescales of minutes to hours. In fact, such oscillations have been observed only in sources with a high mass-accretion rate, such as GRS 1915+105 (refs 2, 3). These large-amplitude, relatively slow timescale, phenomena are thought to have physical origins distinct from those of X-ray or optical variations with small amplitudes and fast timescales (less than about 10 seconds) often observed in other black-hole binaries-for example, XTE J1118+480 (ref. 4) and GX 339-4 (ref. 5). Here we report an extensive multi-colour optical photometric data set of V404 Cygni, an X-ray transient source containing a black hole of nine solar masses (and a companion star) at a distance of 2.4 kiloparsecs (ref. 8). Our data show that optical oscillations on timescales of 100 seconds to 2.5 hours can occur at mass-accretion rates more than ten times lower than previously thought. This suggests that the accretion rate is not the critical parameter for inducing inner-disk instabilities. Instead, we propose that a long orbital period is a key condition for these large-amplitude oscillations, because the outer part of the large disk in binaries with long orbital periods will have surface densities too low to maintain sustained mass accretion to the inner part of the disk. The lack of sustained accretion--not the actual rate--would then be the critical factor causing large-amplitude oscillations in long-period systems.

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave and subsequent period. Next, offsets between case and death time series are learned for each country via a normalized inner product. Combining these with additional calculations, we can determine which countries have most substantially reduced the mortality rate of COVID-19. Finally, our paper identifies similarities in the trajectories of cases and deaths for European countries and U.S. states. Our analysis refines the popular conception that the mortality rate has greatly decreased throughout Europe during its second wave of COVID-19; instead, we demonstrate a bifurcation in which wealthier Western European countries have managed their mortality rate more successfully. A similar distinction exists in the United States, where Northeastern states have been the most successful in the country.

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes distances between them, and determines whether each state is in (or over) a first or second surge. Then, appropriate distances between normalized time series are used to further analyze the relationships between case trajectories on a month-by-month basis. Our algorithm shows that 31 states are experiencing second surges, while four of the 10 largest states are still in their first surge, with case counts that have never decreased. This analysis can aid in highlighting the most and least successful state responses to COVID-19.

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