Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.

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This work introduces a new uncertainty quantification method to better deal with scarce data and long simulation run times in Formula 1 design. Race cars are produced in low quantities and for maximum performance. Thus, their designing process is characterised by manufacturing data shortage and complex Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations with long run times. Their car aerodynamics is subject to many random variables that introduce uncertainty into the down-force and drag performance, such as variations in ride height, front wing direction and pitch angle. To accurately predict the car performance during a race, it is important to study the effect of these random variables. This assessment cannot be performed with the standard deterministic Computational Fluid Dynamics approaches used in Formula 1. Even with regard to stochastic approaches, no efficient method has so far been suggested that addresses the problem of data scarcity. The reason for this is that most efficient uncertainty quantification methods fit probability distributions to the scarce data. It is shown in this work that probability distribution fitting can create a significant error using a simple two-dimensional diffuser example. Subsequently, the use of a new data-driven Polynomial Chaos method and its sparse multi-dimensional extension is suggested and demonstrated for Formula 1 to reduce such errors. This method allows to avoid distribution fitting because it is based on pure data. SAMBA’s general formulation also makes it easier to combine any possible inputs within a sparse description for problems with many variables. SAMBA is applied to two realistic car three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations: a NACA 0012 tip wing and the front part of a Formula 1 car. The probabilistic variations of the lift and drag of these two configurations are calculated using SAMBA and shown to be significant.

This work presents a machine learning based method for bi-fidelity modelling. The method, a Knowledge Based Neural Network (KBaNN), performs a local, additive correction to the outputs of a coarse computational model and can be used to emulate either experimental data or the output of a more accurate, but expensive, computational model. An advantage of the method is that it can scale easily with the number of input and output features. This allows bi-fidelity modelling approaches to be applied to a wide variety of problems, for instance in the bi-fidelity modelling of fields. We demonstrate this aspect in this work through an application to Computational Fluid Dynamics, in which local corrections to a velocity field are performed by the KBaNN to account for mesh effects. KBaNNs were trained to make corrections to the free-stream velocity field and the boundary layer. They were trained on a limited data-set consisting of simple two-dimensional flows. The KBaNNs were then tested on a flow over a more complex geometry, a NACA 2412 airfoil. It was demonstrated that the KBaNNs were still able to provide a local correction to the velocity field which improved its accuracy. The ability of the KBaNNs to generalise to flows around new geometries that share similar physics is encouraging. Through knowledge based neural networks it may be possible to develop a system for bi-fidelity, computer based design which uses data from past simulations to inform its predictions.

Computational Fluid Dynamics is one of the most relied upon tools in the design and analysis of components in turbomachines. From the propulsion fan at the inlet, through the compressor and combustion sections, to the turbines at the outlet, CFD is used to perform fluid flow and heat transfer analyses to help designers extract the highest performance out of each component. In some cases, such as the design point performance of the axial compressor, current methods are capable of delivering good predictive accuracy. However, many areas require improved methods to give reliable predictions in order for the relevant design spaces to be further explored with confidence. This paper illustrates recent developments in CFD for turbomachinery which make use of machine learning techniques to augment prediction accuracy, speed up prediction times, analyse and manage uncertainty and reconcile simulations with available data. Such techniques facilitate faster and more robust searches of the design space, with or without the help of optimization methods, and enable innovative designs which keep pace with the demand for improved efficiency and sustainability as well as parts and asset operation cost reduction.