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Most models in the bankruptcy prediction literature implicitly assume companies are stand-alone entities. However, in view of the importance of business groups in Continental Europe, ignoring group ties may have a negative impact on predictive reliability. We find that models encompassing both bankruptcy variables defined at subsidiary level and at group level have a substantially better fit and classification performance. Furthermore we find that the group's support causes improved survival chances for subsidiaries, especially when these subsidiaries belong to the group's core business. Overall our results are consistent with existing theoretical and empirical findings from the internal capital markets literature. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The literature on capital structure dynamics assumes that companies tradeoff the advantages of a leverage adjustment and its costs. In general, private companies are assumed to face relatively large adjustment costs, and should have lower financing flexibility. However, we argue that an important class of private companies -business group affiliates -may face relatively low adjustment costs because of their access to both internal and external capital markets and the beneficial reputation effects of belonging to a group. Our empirical results show significant differences in the composition of the capital structure and the leverage adjustment process between affiliates of private Belgian business groups and comparable stand-alone companies. Group affiliates have higher levels of leverage, and adjust their capital structure more frequently than stand-alones. Our evidence suggests that the flexibility in group companies' capital structure is not solely driven by the use of internal leverage: group affiliates more frequently adjust their external leverage as well, unless the group is in poor financial health, in which case the affiliates' probability of attracting external leverage is severely reduced.

We argue that domestic business groups are able to actively optimize the internal/external debt mix across their subsidiaries. Novel to the literature, we use bi-level data (i.e. data from both individual subsidiary financial statements and consolidated group level financial statements) to model the bank and internal debt concentration of non-financial Belgian private business group affiliates. As a benchmark, we construct a size and industry matched sample of non-group affiliated (stand-alone) companies. We find support for a pecking order of internal debt over bank debt at the subsidiary level which leads to a substantially lower bank debt concentration for group affiliates as compared to standalone companies. The internal debt concentration of a subsidiary is mainly driven by the characteristics of the group's internal capital market. The larger its available resources, the more intragroup debt is used while bank debt financing at the subsidiary level decreases. However, as the group's overall debt level mounts, groups increasingly locate bank borrowing in subsidiaries with low costs of external financing (i.e. large subsidiaries with important collateral assets) to limit moral hazard and dissipative costs. Overall, our results are consistent with the existence of a complex group wide optimization process of financing costs.

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