In order to understand Uruguayan long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan exports series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of exports' records, first, according to import partners' records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and export price index, which present an export evolution more unstable and less dynamic than the one showed by its neighbor Argentina.

This paper tackles the mixed-frequency modelling problem from a new perspective. Instead of drawing upon the common distributed lag polynomial model, we use a transfer function representation to develop a new type of models, named TF-MIDAS. We derive the theoretical TF-MIDAS implied by the high-frequency VARMA family models for two common aggregation schemes, flow and stock. This exact correspondence leads to potential gains in terms of nowcasting and forecasting performance against the current alternatives. The estimation of the model proposed is also addressed via its state space equivalent form. A Monte Carlo simulation exercise confirms that TF-MIDAS beats U-MIDAS models (its natural competitor) in terms of out-of-sample nowcasting performance for several data generating high-frequency processes.