Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. MethodsWe forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FindingsWe estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57•4 (95% uncertainty interval 50•4-65•1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152•8 (130•8-175•9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0•1% [-7•5 to 10•8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1•69 [1•64-1•73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1•67 [1•52-1•85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected incr...

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Objectives To estimate initial levels of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and their changes during the early months of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Australia; to identify trajectories of symptoms of depression and anxiety; to identify factors associated with these trajectories. Design, setting, participants Longitudinal cohort study; seven fortnightly online surveys of a representative sample of 1296 Australian adults from the beginning of COVID‐19‐related restrictions in late March 2020 to mid‐June 2020. Main outcome measures Symptoms of depression and anxiety, measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ‐9) depression and Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD‐7) scales; trajectories of symptom change. Results Younger age, being female, greater COVID‐19‐related work and social impairment, COVID‐19‐related financial distress, having a neurological or mental illness diagnosis, and recent adversity were each significantly associated with higher baseline depression and anxiety scores. Growth mixture models identified three latent trajectories for depression symptoms (low throughout the study, 81% of participants; moderate throughout the study, 10%; initially severe then declining, 9%) and four for anxiety symptoms (low throughout the study, 77%; initially moderate then increasing, 10%; initially moderate then declining, 5%; initially mild then increasing before again declining, 8%). Factors statistically associated with not having a low symptom trajectory included mental disorder diagnoses, COVID‐19‐related financial distress and social and work impairment, and bushfire exposure. Conclusion Our longitudinal data enabled identification of distinct symptom trajectories during the first three months of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Australia. Early intervention to ensure that vulnerable people are clinically and socially supported during a pandemic should be a priority.

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