We use eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) from 21 FLUXNET sites (153 site-years of data) to investigate relationships between phenology and productivity (in terms of both NEP and gross ecosystem photosynthesis, GEP) in temperate and boreal forests. Results are used to evaluate the plausibility of four different conceptual models. Phenological indicators were derived from the eddy covariance time series, and from remote sensing and models. We examine spatial patterns (across sites) and temporal patterns (across years); an important conclusion is that it is likely that neither of these accurately represents how productivity will respond to future phenological shifts resulting from ongoing climate change. In spring and autumn, increased GEP resulting from an 'extra' day tends to be offset by concurrent, but smaller, increases in ecosystem respiration, and thus the effect on NEP is still positive. Spring productivity anomalies 3227This journal is q 2010 The Royal Society on May 11, 2018 http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ Downloaded from appear to have carry-over effects that translate to productivity anomalies in the following autumn, but it is not clear that these result directly from phenological anomalies. Finally, the productivity of evergreen needleleaf forests is less sensitive to phenology than is productivity of deciduous broadleaf forests. This has implications for how climate change may drive shifts in competition within mixedspecies stands.

Monitoring and understanding plant phenology are important in the context of studies of terrestrial productivity and global change. Vegetation phenology, such as dates of onsets of greening up and leaf senescence, has been determined by remote sensing using mainly the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In boreal regions, the results suffer from significant uncertainties because of the effect of snow on NDVI. In this paper, SPOT VEGETATION S10 data over Siberia have been analysed to define a more appropriate method. The analysis of time series of NDVI, normalized difference snow index (NDSI), and normalized difference water index (NDWI), together with an analysis of in situ phenological records in Siberia, shows that the vegetation phenology can be detected using NDWI, with small effect of snow. In spring, the date of onset of greening up is taken as the date at which NDWI starts increasing, since NDWI decreases with snowmelt and increases with greening up. In the fall, the date of onset of leaf coloring is taken as the date at which NDWI starts decreasing, since NDWI decreases with senescence and increases with snow accumulation. The results are compared to the results obtained using NDVI-based methods, taking in situ phenological records as the reference. NDWI gives better estimations of the start of greening up than NDVI (reduced RMSE, bias and dispersions, and higher correlation), whereas it does not improve the determination of the start of leaf coloring. A map of greening up dates in central Siberia obtained from NDWI is shown for year 2002 and the reliability of the method is discussed. D