An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a diffusion-regression state-space model that predicts the counterfactual market response in a synthetic control that would have occurred had no intervention taken place. In contrast to classical difference-in-differences schemes, state-space models make it possible to (i) infer the temporal evolution of attributable impact, (ii) incorporate empirical priors on the parameters in a fully Bayesian treatment, and (iii) flexibly accommodate multiple sources of variation, including local trends, seasonality and the time-varying influence of contemporaneous covariates. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, we illustrate the statistical properties of our approach on simulated data. We then demonstrate its practical utility by estimating the causal effect of an online advertising campaign on search-related site visits. We discuss the strengths and limitations of state-space models in enabling causal attribution in those settings where a randomised experiment is unavailable. The CausalImpact R package provides an implementation of our approach.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS788 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) is an open-source computer package for solving problems involving spatially related variables. It provides geostatistics practitioners with a user-friendly interface, an interactive 3-D visualization, and a wide selection of algorithms. This practical book provides a step-by-step guide to using SGeMS algorithms. It explains the underlying theory, demonstrates their implementation, discusses their potential limitations, and helps the user make an informed decision about the choice of one algorithm over another. Users can complete complex tasks using the embedded scripting language, and new algorithms can be developed and integrated through the SGeMS plug-in mechanism. SGeMS was the first software to provide algorithms for multiple-point statistics, and the book presents a discussion of the corresponding theory and applications. Incorporating the full SGeMS software (now available from www.cambridge.org/9781107403246), this book is a useful user-guide for Earth Science graduates and researchers, as well as practitioners of environmental mining and petroleum engineering.

Abstract-This article proposes a simple and convenient method for assessing the subject-specific rolling resistance acting on a manual wheelchair, which could be used during the provision of clinical service. This method, based on a simple mathematical equation, is sensitive to both the total mass and its fore-aft distribution, which changes with the subject, wheelchair properties, and adjustments. The rolling resistance properties of three types of front casters and four types of rear wheels were determined for two indoor surfaces commonly encountered by wheelchair users (a hard smooth surface and carpet) from measurements of a three-dimensional accelerometer during field deceleration tests performed with artificial load. The average results provided by these experiments were then used as input data to assess the rolling resistance from the mathematical equation with an acceptable accuracy on hard smooth and carpet surfaces (standard errors of the estimates were 4.4 and 3.9 N, respectively). Thus, this method can be confidently used by clinicians to help users make trade-offs between front and rear wheel types and sizes when choosing and adjusting their manual wheelchair.

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