Coral reefs are globally in decline and western Atlantic reefs have experienced the greatest losses in live coral cover of any region. The Flower Garden Banks (FGB) in the Gulf of Mexico are high-latitude, remote reefs that are an outlier to this trend, as they have maintained coral cover ≥ 50% since at least 1989. Quantifying the long-term trends in coral growth of key reef-building coral species, and the underlying environmental drivers, leads to a better understanding of local sensitivities to past changes that will ultimately allow us to better predict the future of reef growth at FGB. We obtained coral cores and constructed growth records for two of the most abundant hermatypic coral species at FGB, Pseudodiploria strigosa and Orbicella faveolata. Our records cover 57 yrs of growth for P. strigosa (1957–2013) and 45 yrs for O. faveolata (1970–2014). Linear extension and calcification rates of both species have increased significantly, but skeletal density did not change over the respective time periods. Extension and calcification data of both species combined were negatively correlated with the discharge from the Atchafalaya River, but positively correlated with maximum sea surface temperatures (SST). These data provide evidence that runoff from the Atchafalaya River impacts FGB corals and is a major control on coral growth at FGB. The increase in growth at FGB can be attributed to the significant warming trend in maximum monthly SSTs. Given the warming trend and recent increase in severity of bleaching at FGB, the prognosis is that bleaching events will become more deleterious with time, which will lead to a breakdown in the positive relationship between coral growth and maximum SST. This study provides further evidence that some high-latitude, cooler reef sites have experienced a stimulation in coral growth with ocean warming.

Coral reef habitat is created when calcium carbonate production by calcifiers exceeds removal by physical and biological erosion. Carbonate budget surveys provide a means of quantifying the framework-altering actions of diverse assemblages of marine species to determine net carbonate production, a single metric that encapsulates reef habitat persistence. In this study, carbonate budgets were calculated for 723 sites across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) using benthic cover and parrotfish demographic data from NOAA’s National Coral Reef Monitoring Program, as well as high-resolution LiDAR topobathymetry. Results highlight the erosional state of the majority of the study sites, with a trend towards more vulnerable habitat in the northern FRT, especially in the Southeast Florida region (− 0.51 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1), which is in close proximity to urban centers. Detailed comparison of reef types reveals that mid-channel reefs in the Florida Keys have the highest net carbonate production (0.84 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1) and indicates that these reefs may be hold-outs for reef development throughout the region. This study reports that Florida reefs, specifically their physical structure, are in a net erosional state. As these reefs lose structure, the ecosystem services they provide will be diminished, signifying the importance of increased protections and management efforts to offset these trends.

For reef framework to persist, calcium carbonate production by corals and other calcifiers needs to outpace loss due to physical, chemical, and biological erosion. This balance is both delicate and dynamic and is currently threatened by the effects of ocean warming and acidification. Although the protection and recovery of ecosystem functions are at the center of most restoration and conservation programs, decision makers are limited by the lack of predictive tools to forecast habitat persistence under different emission scenarios. To address this, we developed a modelling approach, based on carbonate budgets, that ties species-specific responses to site-specific global change using the latest generation of climate models projections (CMIP6). We applied this model to Cheeca Rocks, an outlier in the Florida Keys in terms of high coral cover, and explored the outcomes of restoration targets scheduled in the coming 20 years at this site by the Mission: Iconic Reefs restoration initiative. Additionally, we examined the potential effects of coral thermal adaptation by increasing the bleaching threshold by 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2˚C. Regardless of coral adaptative capacity or restoration, net carbonate production at Cheeca Rocks declines heavily once the threshold for the onset of annual severe bleaching is reached. The switch from net accretion to net erosion, however, is significantly delayed by mitigation and adaptation. The maintenance of framework accretion until 2100 and beyond is possible under a decreased emission scenario coupled with thermal adaptation above 0.5˚C. Although restoration initiatives increase reef accretion estimates, Cheeca Rocks will only be able to keep pace with future sea-level rise in a world where anthropogenic CO2 emissions are reduced. Present results, however, attest to the potential of restoration interventions combined with increases in coral thermal tolerance to delay the onset of mass bleaching mortalities, possibly in time for a low-carbon economy to be implemented and complementary mitigation measures to become effective.