PurposeThis research unfolds a holistic association between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and three important markets (oil, stock and gold) in the Indian context. To do same, the current study uses the monthly dataset of each variable spanning from November 2005 to March 2022.Design/methodology/approachThe authors have portrayed the wavelet-based coherence, correlation and covariance plots to explore the interaction between EPU and markets' behavior. Then, a wavelet-based quantile on quantile regression model and wavelet-based Granger causality has been applied to examine the cause-and-effect relation and causality between the EPU and markets.FindingsThe authors’ findings report that the Indian crude oil buyers do not need to consider Indian EPU while negotiating the oil deals in the short term and medium term. However, in case of the long-term persistence of uncertainty, it becomes difficult for a buyer to negotiate oil deals at cheap rates. EPU causes unfavorable fluctuation in the stock market because macroeconomic decisions have a substantial impact on it. The authors have also found that gold is a gauge for economic imbalances and an accurate observer of inflation resulting from uncertainty, showing a safe haven attribute.Originality/valueThe authors’ work is original in two aspects. First, their study solely focused on the Indian economy to investigate the impact and causal power of Indian EPU on three major components of the Indian economy: oil, stock and gold. Second, they will provide their findings after analyzing data at a very microlevel using a wavelet-based quantile on quantile and wavelet-based Granger causality.
In the early 2000s, ‘green investing’ caught the fancy of investors worldwide as they realized that being environmentally conscious could also be financially rewarding. The Suzlon Energy Initial Public Offering (IPO) in India in September 2005 received much attention, and was oversubscribed nearly 25 times. Many investors regarded Suzlon as a green investment opportunity, and the stock touched record high levels over the next three years of its listing. However, some large and highly leveraged acquisitions made with the objective of achieving fast growth led to major financial distress for the company. The race to capture new markets with new products also led to compromises on product quality and customer service. A good business model was damaged by bad investment decisions, and stock prices declined steadily. Suzlon disappeared from the radar of green investors till an acquisition 23 per cent stake in Suzlon Energy by a strategic investor revived the market’s interest in this stock. This paper is a case study of how, despite being a green business with great potential, Suzlon took on risks that led to major losses for its investors, and lessons for green investors of India.
The introduction of index futures was a landmark event for global commodity markets. It has been blamed by regulators and academicians for its role in food price surges from time to time. This paper examines the price discovery and volatility spillover relationship among agricultural index futures globally. Results from the study reveal that index futures play a dominant role in contributing to price discovery. The price leadership of the futures market, although found to be strong, is diminished in the presence of stringent regulatory trading curbs that were put in place as a response to the crisis. Furthermore, an improved Diebold & Yilmaz method based on TVP-VAR-SV model was used to analyze dynamic connectedness between the index and standalone contracts of agriculture commodity markets. The results show that the impacts on the net spillover of various indices are different. However, the evidence fails to support the argument that volatility is induced due to spillovers among the indices.
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