“Carbon neutrality” has become a challenging target for the energy sector, which may lead to a major structural redesign of the sector. This may inevitably have an impact on the country’s economic structure. Future policies should be carefully formulated, taking into consideration both the positives and negatives, as well as the short-and long-term effects on the nation’s energy and economy in the future.  This will ensure that the nation receives the maximum benefit in terms of energy security, carbon targets, environmental and social care, and sustainable economic growth.  The various driving factors to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 were analyzed based on the STEEP analysis, with an emphasis on the energy sector, which is found to make the largest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. It found that political will, green technology, and financial incentives are the most influential factors in achieving the carbon neutrality target. These factors are considered as critical uncertainties when building two future scenarios for the energy sector. The Classic scenario reflects the attempt to achieve carbon neutrality with an emphasis on clean technologies, such as renewable energy, green hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Meanwhile, the target will become even more challenging when energy efficiency is to be increased, such as electric vehicle. The Orchestra scenario shows how energy management, a decentralized energy system and promoting the prosumer market, especially in the residential sector, are used to try to reach carbon neutrality. In conclusion, both scenarios may result in the achievement of the 2050 carbon neutrality target. The Orchestra scenario may need planning, a holistic management approach, and active cooperation from various sectors. On the contrary, in the Classic scenario, most activities are restricted to the energy sector, which may entail some risks, particularly the rising demand for carbon offsets from other countries.

The energy sector is currently facing different challenges. It is necessary for business leaders to understand the forthcoming changes that will affect their businesses in order to prepare themselves for any uncertainties and take advantage of new opportunities. This paper identifies changes that are expected to have an impact on Thailand’s energy system in the next 30 years and explores plausible scenarios for Thailand’s energy sector under such changes. The study starts with an examination of global and local circumstances. The examination pinpoints a focal issue as “to achieve sustainable development goals (SDG) by 2050”. Then, STEEP analysis is implemented to identify business drivers in social (S), technological (T), economical (E), ecological (E), and political (P) aspects. Subsequently, consultations with stakeholders are arranged to finalize the critical uncertainties. Policy and technology are found to be two of the most powerful factors affecting energy business and are, therefore, used as fundamental frameworks for scenario development. Accordingly, four plausible scenarios are derived providing different possible prospects for Thailand’s energy businesses. The findings can further be used in the analysis of national energy balance with detailed sector-by-sector projections. All of which will be beneficial in strategic energy planning at both the national and corporate level with a view to achieving the SDGs by 2050.

This study’s goal is to illustrate future energy scenarios for Thailand in the year 2050: Cloud and Clear scenarios. Cloud depicts a scenario of an economy driven mainly by value-based industrial manufacturing. Security of energy supply is prioritized, with an emphasis on environment concerns and GHG emissions. Energy industry is dominated by incumbent businesses, which play important role in energy transition. Clean energy is gaining more market share, but fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy. Clear reflects the new economy driven by new S-curve businesses. Energy sustainability became first priority for national policy. Diverse options for end-users are available for self-management. New players can be competitor in Thai energy industry. Clean energy became one of the main energy sources. The quantitative results show that owing to the pandemic’s impact, short-term energy demand and GHG emissions decrease dramatically, then rebound and split into two scenarios: uptrend for Cloud and downtrend for Clear. Pathway to sustainable energy is revealed in Clear scenario. Peak energy demand can be reached within 2030. The peak of GHG emissions has already passed and will be approaching to the level of 2DC pathway. Therefore, more actions are required to achieve the ambitious goal of 1.5C.

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Natural gas has been playing an important role in strengthening energy security of Thailand as over 60 percent of total natural gas consumed in the country is from the Gulf of Thailand. In the past 20 years, the average growth of natural gas demand is 5.5 percent per year. Thanks to its low carbon content, natural gas is considered as cleaner fuel comparing to other fossil-based fuels. Still, there are usages of carbon-intensive fuels such as fuel oil and coal in Thailand e.g. in the industrial sector. Most of fuel oil and coal consumed are imported from foreign countries. Replacing these fuels with natural gas may be an option for the country to promote domestic clean energy and reduce overall carbon emissions. This paper forecasts the possibility of replacing fuel oil and coal in the industrial sector with natural gas. The research starts with examining the limitations of Thai regulations, estimating the amount of natural gas required for the replacement, and forecasting future prices of all three fuels. The price projection shows an attractive option for fuel oil users as the long term price of natural gas is projected to be lower than that of fuel oil. On the contrary, the projected coal price alone will not encourage coal users to switch their fuels. Thus, strong government measures will be required to stimulate coal replacement. The result of the study will be useful for determining appropriate policies to support long-term demand for natural gas of the country.