Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is an important emerging pathogen causing large epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. In Malaysia, since the first EV-A71 epidemic in 1997, recurrent cyclical epidemics have occurred every 2–3 years for reasons that remain unclear. We hypothesize that this cyclical pattern is due to changes in population immunity in children (measured as seroprevalence). Neutralizing antibody titers against EV-A71 were measured in 2,141 residual serum samples collected from children ≤12 years old between 1995 and 2012 to determine the seroprevalence of EV-A71. Reported national HFMD incidence was highest in children <2 years, and decreased with age; in support of this, EV-A71 seroprevalence was significantly associated with age, indicating greater susceptibility in younger children. EV-A71 epidemics are also characterized by peaks of increased genetic diversity, often with genotype changes. Cross-sectional time series analysis was used to model the association between EV-A71 epidemic periods and EV-A71 seroprevalence adjusting for age and climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, rain days and ultraviolet radiance). A 10% increase in absolute monthly EV-A71 seroprevalence was associated with a 45% higher odds of an epidemic (adjusted odds ratio, aOR1.45; 95% CI 1.24–1.69; P<0.001). Every 10% decrease in seroprevalence between preceding and current months was associated with a 16% higher odds of an epidemic (aOR = 1.16; CI 1.01–1.34 P<0.034). In summary, the 2–3 year cyclical pattern of EV-A71 epidemics in Malaysia is mainly due to the fall of population immunity accompanying the accumulation of susceptible children between epidemics. This study will impact the future planning, timing and target populations for vaccine programs.

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), which is transmitted by the fecal-oral route, causes hand, foot and mouth disease and, rarely, severe neurological complications. In Malaysia, the indigenous rural community (Orang Asli) has a high prevalence of parasitic diseases due to poor sanitation, water supply and hygiene practices. This cross-sectional study compared the seroepidemiology of EV-A71 among rural Orang Asli and urban Kuala Lumpur populations in West Malaysia, and determined the risk factors associated with EV-A71 seropositivity in rural Orang Asli. Seropositive rates were determined by neutralization assay. EV-A71 seropositivity was strongly associated with increasing age in both populations. Rural Orang Asli children ≤12 years had significantly higher EV-A71 seropositivity rates than urban Kuala Lumpur children (95.5% vs 57.6%, P < 0.001), and also higher rates in the age groups of 1–3, 4–6 and 7–12 years. Multivariate analysis confirmed that age ≤12 years (adjusted OR 8.1, 95% CI 3.2–20.7, P < 0.001) and using untreated water (adjusted OR 6.2, 95% CI 2.3–16.6, P < 0.001) were independently associated with EV-A71 seropositivity in the Orang Asli population. Supply of clean drinking water may reduce the risk of EV-A71 infection. With significantly higher EV-A71 seropositive rates, younger rural children should be a priority target for future vaccination programs in Malaysia.

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) neutralization escape mutants were generated with monoclonal antibody MAB979 (Millipore). The VP2-T141I and VP1-D14N substitutions were identified. Using reverse genetics, infectious clones with these substitutions were constructed and tested by neutralization assay with immune sera from mice and humans. The N-terminus VP1-14 is more important than EF loop VP2-141 in acute human infection, mainly because it recognised IgM present in acute infection. The N-terminus VP1 could be a useful target for diagnostics and therapeutic antibodies in acute infection.