How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

First-principles simulations of tokamak turbulence have proven to be of great value in recent decades. We develop a pseudo-spectral velocity formulation of the turbulence equations that smoothly interpolates between the highly efficient but lower resolution 3D gyrofluid representation and the conventional but more expensive 5D gyrokinetic representation. Our formulation is a projection of the nonlinear gyrokinetic equation onto a Laguerre-Hermite velocity-space basis. We discuss issues related to collisions, closures, and entropy. While any collision operator can be used in the formulation, we highlight a model operator that has a particularly sparse Laguerre-Hermite representation, while satisfying conservation laws and the H theorem. Free streaming, magnetic drifts, and nonlinear phase mixing each give rise to closure problems, which we discuss in relation to the instabilities of interest and to free energy conservation. We show that the model is capable of reproducing gyrokinetic results for linear instabilities and zonal flow dynamics. Thus the final model is appropriate for the study of instabilities, turbulence, and transport in a wide range of geometries, including tokamaks and stellarators.

We present an energy-conserving discontinuous Galerkin scheme for the fullf electromagnetic gyrokinetic system in the long-wavelength limit. We use the symplectic formulation and solve directly for ∂A /∂t, the inductive component of the parallel electric field, using a generalized Ohm's law derived directly from the gyrokinetic equation. Linear benchmarks are performed to verify the implementation and show that the scheme avoids the Ampère cancellation problem. We perform a nonlinear electromagnetic simulation in a helical open-field-line system as a rough model of the tokamak scrape-off layer using parameters from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). This is the first published nonlinear electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulation on open field lines. Comparisons are made to a corresponding electrostatic simulation.

A conservative discontinuous Galerkin scheme for a nonlinear Dougherty collision operator in fullf long-wavelength gyrokinetics is presented. Analytically this model operator has the advective-diffusive form of Fokker-Planck operators, it has a non-decreasing entropy functional, and conserves particles, momentum and energy. Discretely these conservative properties are maintained exactly as well, independent of numerical resolution. In this work the phase space discretization is performed using a novel version of the discontinuous Galerkin scheme, carefully constructed using concepts of weak equality and recovery. Discrete time advancement is carried out with an explicit time-stepping algorithm, whose stability limits we explore. The formulation and implementation within the long-wavelength gyrokinetic solver of Gkeyll are validated with relaxation tests, collisional Landau-damping benchmarks and the study of 5D gyrokinetic turbulence on helical, open field lines.

We present algorithms and results from Gkeyll, a full-f continuum, electromagnetic gyrokinetic code, designed to study turbulence in the edge region of fusion devices. The edge is computationally very challenging, requiring robust algorithms that can handle large-amplitude fluctuations and stable interactions with plasma sheaths. We present an energy-conserving high-order discontinuous Galerkin scheme that solves gyrokinetic equations in Hamiltonian form. Efficiency is improved by a careful choice of basis functions and automatically generated computation kernels. Previous verification tests were performed in the straight-field-line large plasma device [Shi et al., J. Plasma Phys. 83, 905830304 (2017)] and the Texas Helimak, a simple magnetized torus [Bernard et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 042301 (2019)], including the effect of end-plate biasing on turbulence. Results for the scrape-off layer for NSTX parameters with a model helical magnetic geometry with bad curvature have been obtained [Shi et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 012307 (2019)]. In this paper, we present algorithms for the two formulations of electromagnetic gyrokinetics: the Hamiltonian and the symplectic. We describe each formulation and show results of benchmark tests. Although our scheme works for the Hamiltonian formulation, the presence of spurious numerical modes for high-β and large k⊥2ρs2 regimes shows that the symplectic formulation is more robust. We then review our recent algorithm for the symplectic formulation [Mandell et al., J. Plasma Phys. 86, 905860109 (2020)], along with example application of this new capability. Maintaining positivity of the distribution function can be challenging, and we describe a new and novel exponential recovery based algorithm to address this.