Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.fragmentation | temporary streams | barriers | groundwater extraction R epresenting one of the most critically imperiled environments in the world (1), virtually every drop of water is managed, accounted for, and allocated for human use in arid ecosystems of the American Southwest (2). Ephemeral and intermittent streams (hereafter called "dryland streams") that fluctuate between drying and wetting are a distinguishing characteristic of these ecosystems and are associated with a range of important ecological and societal values (3). From a landscape perspective they provide essential hydrologic connectivity during bouts of stream inundation by linking a patchwork of perennial habitats over space and in time. Hydrologic connectivity-here referring to the upstream-downstream longitudinal connection of surface water-is widely recognized as a primary driver of freshwater ecosystem structure and function (3, 4) and is considered fundamental to organic matter and nutrient transport and the persistence of aquatic species by facilitating the repeated recolonization of motile and drifting organisms from isolated stream pools (refuges) to rewetted channel reaches that are intermittently dispersed throughout the river network (5, 6).Prospects of a rapidly changing climate that ...

Data from two National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) surface moorings in the North Pacific, in combination with data from satellite, Argo floats and glider (when available), are used to evaluate the residual diffusive flux of heat across the base of the mixed layer from the surface mixed layer heat budget. The diffusion coefficient (i.e., diffusivity) is then computed by dividing the diffusive flux by the temperature gradient in the 20 m transition layer just below the base of the mixed layer. At Station Papa in the NE Pacific subpolar gyre, this diffusivity is 1 × 10−4 m2/s during summer, increasing to ∼3 × 10−4 m2/s during fall. During late winter and early spring, diffusivity has large errors. At other times, diffusivity computed from the mixed layer salt budget at Papa correlate with those from the heat budget, giving confidence that the results are robust for all seasons except late winter‐early spring and can be used for other tracers. In comparison, at the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) in the NW Pacific subtropical recirculation gyre, somewhat larger diffusivities are found based upon the mixed layer heat budget: ∼ 3 × 10−4 m2/s during the warm season and more than an order of magnitude larger during the winter, although again, wintertime errors are large. These larger values at KEO appear to be due to the increased turbulence associated with the summertime typhoons, and weaker wintertime stratification.

In the California Current System, subthermocline, lenslike anticyclonic eddies generated within the California Undercurrent (CU) are one mechanism for lateral transport of the warm, saline waters of the CU. Garfield et al. established the name “Cuddies” for eddies of this type and hypothesized that they account for a significant fraction of the offshore transport of CU water. This study presents observations of subthermocline eddies collected from a time series of Seaglider surveys in the northern California Current System. Gliders made 46 crossings of subthermocline anticyclones and 17 crossings of subthermocline cyclones over 5.5 yr. Close inspection grouped these into 20 distinct anticyclones and 10 distinct cyclones. Water properties at the core of anticyclonic eddies were similar to those in the core of the CU over the continental slope; these anticyclones are examples of Cuddies. Anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies had average radii of 20.4 (20.6) km, peak azimuthal current speeds of 0.25 (0.23) m s−1, and average core anomalies of potential vorticity 65% below (125% above) ambient values. Anticyclones contained an order of magnitude greater available heat and salt anomaly relative to background conditions than cyclones on average. Circumstantial evidence of eddy decay through lateral intrusions was found although this was not observed consistently. Observed eddy properties and the geometry of flow over the continental slope were consistent with eddy formation due to frictional torque acting on the CU. Loss of heat and salt from the CU due to subthermocline eddies is estimated to account for 44% of the freshening and cooling of the CU as it flows poleward.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) pose a significant threat to human and marine organism health, and negatively impact coastal economies around the world. An improved understanding of HAB formation and transport is required to improve forecasting skill. A realistic numerical simulation of the US Pacific Northwest region is used to investigate transport pathways from known HAB formation hot spots, specifically for Pseudo-nitzschia (Pn), to the coast. We show that transport pathways are seasonal, with transport to the Washington (WA) coast from a northern source (the Juan de Fuca Eddy) during the summer/fall upwelling season and from a southern source (Heceta Bank) during the winter/early spring due to the predominant wind-driven currents. Interannual variability in transport from the northern source is related to the degree of wind intermittency with more transport during years with more frequent relaxation/downwelling events. The Columbia River plume acts to mitigate transport to the coast as the plume front blocks onshore transport. The plume's influence on alongshore transport is variable although critical in aiding transport from the southern source to the WA coast via plume entrainment. Overall transport from our simulations captures most observed Pn HAB beach events from 2004 to 2007 (characterized by Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance); however, numerous false positives occur. We show that incorporating phytoplankton biomass results from a coupled biogeochemical model reduces the number of false positives significantly and thus improves our Pn HAB predictions.

Adult male and female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) are sexually segregated in different regions of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea during their winter migration. Explanations for this involve interplay between physiology, predator-prey dynamics, and ecosystem characteristics, however possible mechanisms lack empirical support. To investigate factors influencing the winter ecology of both sexes, we deployed five satellite-linked conductivity, temperature, and depth data loggers on adult males, and six satellite-linked depth data loggers and four satellite transmitters on adult females from St. Paul Island (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA) in October 2009. Males and females migrated to different regions of the North Pacific Ocean: males wintered in the Bering Sea and northern North Pacific Ocean, while females migrated to the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. Horizontal and vertical movement behaviors of both sexes were influenced by wind speed, season, light (sun and moon), and the ecosystem they occupied, although the expression of the behaviors differed between sexes. Male dive depths were aligned with the depth of the mixed layer during daylight periods and we suspect this was the case for females upon their arrival to the California Current. We suggest that females, because of their smaller size and physiological limitations, must avoid severe winters typical of the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea and migrate long distances to areas of more benign environmental conditions and where prey is shallower and more accessible. In contrast, males can better tolerate often extreme winter ocean conditions and exploit prey at depth because of their greater size and physiological capabilities. We believe these contrasting winter behaviors 1) are a consequence of evolutionary selection for large size in males, important to the acquisition and defense of territories against rivals during the breeding season, and 2) ease environmental/physiological constraints imposed on smaller females.