Management of agricultural diffuse pollution to water remains a challenge and is influenced by the complex interactions of rainfall-runoff pathways, soil and nutrient management, agricultural landscape heterogeneity and biogeochemical cycling in receiving water bodies. Amplified cycles of weather can also influence nutrient loss to water although they are less considered in policy reviews. Here, we present the development of climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution in highly monitored catchments in Western Europe. Specifically, we investigated the influences and relationships between weather processes amplified by the North Atlantic Oscillation during a sharp upward trend (2010–2016) and the patterns of diffuse nitrate and phosphorus pollution in rivers. On an annual scale, we found correlations between local catchment-scale nutrient concentrations in rivers and the influence of larger, oceanic-scale climate patterns defined by the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These influences were catchment-specific showing positive, negative or no correlation according to a typology. Upward trends in these decadal oscillations may override positive benefits of local management in some years or indicate greater benefits in other years. Developing integrated climate-chemical indicators into catchment monitoring indicators will provide a new and important contribution to water quality management objectives.

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Identifying critical source areas (CSAs) of diffuse pollution in agricultural catchments requires the accurate identification of hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) at highest propensity for generating surface runoff and transporting pollutants. A new GIS-based HSA Index is presented that improves the identification of HSAs at the sub-field scale by accounting for microtopographic controls. The Index is based on high resolution LiDAR data and a soil topographic index (STI) and also considers the hydrological disconnection of overland flow via topographic impediment from flow sinks. The HSA Index was applied to four intensive agricultural catchments (~7.5-12km(2)) with contrasting topography and soil types, and validated using rainfall-quickflow measurements during saturated winter storm events in 2009-2014. Total flow sink volume capacities ranged from 8298 to 59,584m(3) and caused 8.5-24.2% of overland-flow-generating-areas and 16.8-33.4% of catchment areas to become hydrologically disconnected from the open drainage channel network. HSA maps identified 'breakthrough points' and 'delivery points' along surface runoff pathways as vulnerable points where diffuse pollutants could be transported between fields or delivered to the open drainage network, respectively. Using these as proposed locations for targeting mitigation measures such as riparian buffer strips reduced potential costs compared to blanket implementation within an example agri-environment scheme by 66% and 91% over 1 and 5years respectively, which included LiDAR DEM acquisition costs. The HSA Index can be used as a hydrologically realistic transport component within a fully evolved sub-field scale CSA model, and can also be used to guide the implementation of 'treatment-train' mitigation strategies concurrent with sustainable agricultural intensification.

Diffuse transfer of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in agricultural catchments is controlled by the mobilisation of sources and their delivery to receiving waters. While plot scale experiments have focused on mobilisation processes, many catchment scale studies have hitherto concentrated on the controls of dominant flow pathways on nutrient delivery. To place mobilisation and delivery at a catchment scale, this study investigated their relative influence on contrasting nitrate-N and soluble P concentrations and N:P ratios in two shallow groundwater fed catchments with different land use (grassland and arable) on the Atlantic seaboard of Europe. Detailed datasets of N and P inputs, concentrations in shallow groundwater and concentrations in receiving streams were analysed over a five year period (October 2010-September 2015). Results showed that nitrate-N and soluble P concentrations in shallow groundwater give a good indication of stream concentrations, which suggests a dominant control of mobilisation processes on stream exports. Near-stream attenuation of nitrate-N (-30%), likely through denitrification and dilution, and enrichment in soluble P (+100%), through soil-groundwater interactions, were similar in both catchments. The soil, climate and land use controls on mobilisation were also investigated. Results showed that grassland tended to limit nitrate-N leaching as compared to arable land, but grassland could also contribute to increased P solubilisation. In the context of land use change in these groundwater fed systems, the risk of pollution swapping between N and P must be carefully considered, particularly for interactions of land use with soil chemistry and climate.

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