Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted to humans through the bite of Aedes mosquitoes. During the 2005-2006 epidemic that occurred in the Indian Ocean Islands, a viral strain harboring a substitution of an alanine to valine at position 226 (E1-A226V) of the E1 glycoprotein enhanced the transmissibility of CHIKV by Aedes albopictus. In March 2011, autochthonous transmission of CHIKV was reported in New Caledonia (NC), an island located in the southwest Pacific Ocean. This was the first report of local chikungunya (CHIK) transmission in this region of the world. Phylogenetic analysis based on the complete genome demonstrated that the CHIKV-NC strain isolated from the first autochthonous human case belongs to the Asian lineage. This is consistent with the Indonesian origin of CHIK cases previously imported and detected. Thus the CHIKV-NC does not present a valine substitution at position E1-226. In New Caledonia, the putative vector of CHIKV is Aedes aegypti, since no other potential vector has ever been described. For example, A. albopictus is not found in NC. Vector competence experiments showed that A. aegypti from New Caledonia was able to transmit, as early as 3 days post-infection, two CHIKV strains: CHIKV-NC belonging to the Asian lineage, and CHIKV-RE from Reunion Island harboring the E1-A226V mutation. Thus the extrinsic incubation period of both CHIKV strains in this vector species could be considered to be quite short. These results illustrate the threat of the spread of CHIKV in the South Pacific region. From February to June 2011 (the end of the alert), only 33 cases were detected. Implementation of drastic vector control measures and the occurrence of the cold season probably helped to limit the extent of the outbreak, but other factors may have also been involved and are discussed.

Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000–2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.

BackgroundIncidence of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in the Pacific region, including New Caledonia, are amongst the highest in the world. The main priority of long-term management of ARF or RHD is to ensure secondary prophylaxis is adhered to. The objectives of this study were to evaluate rates of adherence in people receiving antibiotic prophylaxis by intramuscular injections of penicillin in Lifou and to determine the factors associated with a poor adherence in this population.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study and we included 70 patients receiving injections of antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent ARF recurrence on the island of Lifou. Patients were classified as “good-adherent” when the rate of adherence was ≥80% of the expected injections and as “poor-adherent” when it was <80%. Statistical analysis to identify factors associated with adherence was performed using a multivariate logistic regression model.ResultsOur study showed that 46% of patients from Lifou receiving antibiotic prophylaxis for ARF or RHD had a rate of adherence <80% and were therefore at high risk of recurrence of ARF. Three independent factors were protective against poor adherence: a household with more than five people (odds ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08 to 0.75), a previous medical history of symptomatic ARF (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.98) and an adequate healthcare coverage (odds ratio, 0.21; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.72).ConclusionsTo improve adherence to secondary prophylaxis in Lifou, we therefore propose the following recommendations arising from the results of this study: i) identifying patients receiving antibiotic prophylaxis without medical history of ARF to strengthen their therapeutic education and ii) improving the medical coverage in patients with ARF or RHD. We also recommend that the nurse designated for the ARF prevention program in Lifou coordinate an active recall system based on an updated local register. But the key point to improve adherence among Melanesian patients is probably to give appropriate information regarding the disease and the treatment, taking into account the Melanesian perceptions of the disease.

This study confirms the high disease burden of GAS infection in New Caledonia and supports the added value of the emm-cluster typing system to analyze GAS epidemiology and to help inform global GAS vaccine formulation.

ObjectivesTo investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).DesignMeta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials.SettingFive randomised controlled trials comparing docetaxel-based chemotherapy with vinorelbine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of NSCLC.Participants2331 patients with advanced NSCLC.Primary and secondary outcome measuresSurrogacy of PFS for OS was assessed through the association between these endpoints and between the treatment effects on these endpoints. The surrogate threshold effect was the minimum treatment effect on PFS required to predict a non-zero treatment effect on OS.ResultsThe median follow-up of patients still alive was 23.4 months. Median OS was 10 months and median PFS was 5.5 months. The treatment effects on PFS and OS were correlated, whether using centres (R²=0.62, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.72) or prognostic strata (R²=0.72, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.84) as units of analysis. The surrogate threshold effect was a PFS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.49 using centres or 0.53 using prognostic strata.ConclusionsThese analyses provide only modest support for considering PFS as an acceptable surrogate for OS in patients with advanced NSCLC. Only treatments that have a major impact on PFS (risk reduction of at least 50%) would be expected to also have a significant effect on OS. Whether these results also apply to targeted therapies is an open question that requires independent evaluation.