This paper looks at the effects of historical trade policy reforms and other determinants in South Africa over the period 1995-2012. We discovered that over the reported period, the demand for imports in South Africa had been increasing with only a few downturns in between. South Africa's merchandise imports are dominated by manufactured imports; and they accounted for more than half of the total merchandise imports over the reported period. One of the key contributors towards the improved performance of imports in South Africa is the trade liberalization policy.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of aggregate and dis-aggregated import demand for Ghana for the period from 1985 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Findings The long-run finding show that aggregate import demand (AIMD) is positively determined by exports of goods and services and consumer spending, but negatively determined by foreign exchange reserves. It is found that consumer spending is the key positive determinant of the import demand of consumer goods, while foreign exchange reserves, trade liberalisation policy and relative import price are negative determinants. It is found that import demand of intermediate goods is positively determined by consumer spending, government spending and investment spending. The long-run findings further confirm that import demand of capital goods is negatively determined by relative import price. In the short run, the findings suggest that AIMD is positively affected by exports of goods and services, investment spending and consumer spending, but negatively affected by foreign exchange reserves. Import demand of consumer goods is positively influenced by consumer spending, but negatively determined by relative import price. Finally, import demand for intermediate goods is found to be positively determined by investment spending and government spending, while import demand for capital goods is positively associated with exports of goods and services and trade liberalisation policy in the previous period. Originality/value A number of studies have looked at the determinants of import demand, focussing on the aggregated import demand. This study adds the component of dis-aggregated import demand, as it assist in dealing with the issues of bias.
This study estimates the determinants of import demand in Tanzania using time-series data for the period from 1985 to 2015. Research Design & Methods:The study applied the ARDL approach on Tanzania's time-series data to examine the key drivers of import demand. The study used both aggregate import demand model (i.e., Model 1) and disaggregated import demand models, i.e., Model 2 (for consumer goods), Model 3 (for intermediate goods) and Model 4 (for capital goods) to examine this linkage. Findings: The study found that in Model 1, aggregate imports in Tanzania are positively influenced by investment and exports, and negatively determined by trade policy. In Model 2, it was found that imports for consumer goods are positively influenced by consumer spending and foreign reserves, but negatively influenced by trade policy. In Model 3, imports for intermediate goods were found to be positively influenced by exports in the long run. Finally, in Model 4, the study found imports for capital goods to be positively influenced by exports (in the short-and long-run), but negatively influenced by investment (in the short-run). Implications & Recommendations:The study recommends that policymakers in Tanzania should strengthen their macroeconomic policies to ensure that their imports are not consumption-based and have an enhancing effect on the country's economic activities. Contribution & Value Added:The study contributes to the empirical body of knowledge by incorporating various components of disaggregated import demand. This is an aspect that is scant in the existing literature as most previous studies only focused on aggregate import demand.
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