Background Many research papers have utilized Species Distribution Models to estimate a species’ current and future geographic distribution and environmental niche. This study aims to (a) understand critical features of SDMs used to model endemic and rare species and (b) to identify possible constraints with the collected data. The present systematic review examined how SDMs are used on endemic and rare plant species to identify optimal practices for future research. Results The evaluated literature (79 articles) was published between January 2010 and December 2020. The number of papers grew considerably over time. The studies were primarily conducted in Asia (41%), Europe (24%), and Africa (2%). The bulk of the research evaluated (38%) focused on theoretical ecology, climate change impacts (19%), and conservation policy and planning (22%). Most of the papers were published in publications devoted to biodiversity conservation, ecological or multidisciplinary fields. The degree of uncertainty was not disclosed in most studies (81%). Conclusion This systematic review provides a broad overview of the emerging trends and gaps in the SDMs research. The majority of studies failed to present uncertainties and error estimates. However, when model performance estimates are given, the model results will be highly effective, allowing for more assurance in the predictions they make. Furthermore, based on our systematic review, we recommend that in the future rare and endemic SDMs should represent uncertainty levels and estimates of errors in the modelling process.

The use of species distribution modelling under climate change to anticipate alterations in species' habitats is a concern in ecological conservation. This research aimed to simulate the present suitable habitat distribution of three species that are rare and endemic to Pakistan and to analyse the possible climate change consequences on habitat suitability in the future (2050 and 2070). We projected potentially suitable habitat distributions using two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs 245 and SSPs 585). The potential distribution was modelled with MaxEnt using species presence-only data, and environmental variables. The modelling approach included seven climate-related variables in total. The model was validated using AUC, TSS, and Jackknife. For all species, the AUC score was >0.85. The present distribution of all three species has been significantly impacted by precipitationrelated factors (bio 14, bio 17, and bio 18). The temperature and topographic diversity also impacted the distribution. The potentially suitable habitat for Buxus papillosa and Rydingia limbata is projected to increase (39 % and 44 % respectively) in the 2050s under SSPs 245, and the potentially suitable habitat for Gentiana kurroo is projected to decrease (24%) in 2070s under SSPs 585. All species may expect appropriate habitats to expand or shrink, however, there will probably be a significant loss of native habitats. We recommend designating climate-change-affected places as conservation protection zones based on these results.

The objective of the current research is to provide a systematic account of the variety of endemic plant species found in Pakistan, with a focus on family, distribution, and life form status. The existing research effort, which is based on a survey of the literature, field observations, and herbarium records, has identified 306 endemic plant species among 50 genera and 40 families. In accordance with an analysis of the life form or status of these plant species, herbs are dominant (n= 243 species, 80 %), while shrubs (n= 33 species, 11 %), under shrubs (n= 13 species, 4 %), trees (n= 10 species, 4 %), and grasses (n= 7 species, 2 %). The study revealed that Asteraceae is the most dominant family (n= 38 species), while Taraxacum is a dominant genus (n= 23 species). Distribution analysis revealed that the majority of species are distributed in mountainous areas of Pakistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is rich in endemism (n= 142 species, 37 %). The current study sheds light on Pakistan’s endemism situation. Further research that takes into consideration population levels and new risks is also required. The study will help policymakers in developing conservation strategies.