Loss of customer goodwill is one of the greatest losses a business organization can incur. One reason for such a loss is stock outage. In an attempt to solve this problem, an overstock could result. Overstock comes with an increase in the holding and carrying cost. It is an attempt to solve these twin problems that an economic order quantity (EOQ) model was developed. Information on fifteen items comprised of 10 non-seasonal and 5 seasonal items was collected from a supermarket in Ikot Ekpene town, Nigeria. The information includes the quantity of daily sales, the unit price, the lead time and the number of times an item is ordered in a month. Based on this information, a simple moving average and y-trend method of forecasting were used to forecast the sales quantity for the following month for the non-seasonal and seasonal items. The forecast value was used to compute the EOQ for each of the items. Different scenarios were created to simulate the fuzzy logic EOQ after which the result of the conventional method, EOQ method, and fuzzy EOQ methods were obtained and compared. It was revealed that if the EOQ method is adopted, savings of 43% of holding and carrying cost would be made. From the scenarios of a fuzzy EOQ, a savings of 35.65% was recorded. It was however observed that in a real-life situation, the savings on a fuzzy EOQ is likely to be higher than that of an EOQ considering the incessant public power outages and the increase in transportation fares due to the high cost of fuel and the bad state of roads in Nigeria. To this end, a Decision Support Tool (DST) was developed to help the supermarket manage its inventory based on daily predictions. The DST incorporates a filter engine to take care of some emotional and cognitive incidences within the environment.
Terrorism and its brutal tendencies constitute a major setback to the development process of the Nigerian economy leading to severe loss of lives, destruction of properties, and a decline of interest in investment by both local and foreign investors. Many models for assessment of terrorist’s activities lack the ability of learning from previous patterns in order to guide pre-emptive actions against future occurrences, and there are no established regional pattern of weaponry, types of attack, as well as types of victims of terrorists’ operations. This study seeks to build a robust intelligent model for recognizing several terrorists’ patterns in each of the six geo-political zones of Nigeria. A data set of 5,503 instances of terrorists’ activities in Nigeria was obtained and a pattern recognition model was built using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with 70%, 15%, and 15% data splits for training, validation, and testing respectively. A 10-10-6 ANN architecture was designed and trained using the scaled conjugate gradient backpropagation algorithm. The training was carried out using Matlab’s neural network pattern recognition toolkit. In order to numerically represent categorical data, a sort-order scheme was developed by the authors and utilized. The results showed average percentage scores for accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score as 99.89, 99.96, 100 and 99.98 respectively. This showed acceptable performance. The developed model is therefore considered a robust one for recognition of terrorists’ patterns in Nigeria. This would assist security agencies to deal with terrorists’ incidences with high intelligent information and advanced preparation for prevention and control. The developed model is highly recommended for use by the security agencies in the country.
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