No abstract

Aging is a good indicator in demographic and health areas as the lifespanof the elderly population increases. Based on the government’s Economic Outlook 2019,it was found that an aging population would increase the government pension paymentsas the pensioners and their beneficiaries have longer life expectancy. Due to mortalityrates decreasing over time, the life expectancy tends to increase in the future. Theaims of this study are to forecast the mortality rates in the years 2020 and 2025 usingthe Heligman-Pollard model and then analyse the effect of mortality improvement onthe pension cost (annuity factor) for the Malaysian population. However, this studyonly focuses on estimating the annuity factor using life annuities through the forecastedmortality rates. The findings indicated that the pension cost is expected to increase ifthe life expectancy of the Malaysian population increases due to the aging population inthe near future. Thus, to reduce pension costs and help the pensioners from insufficientfinancial income, the government needs to consider an extension of the retirement age infuture.

Malaysia will be an ageing population by 2030 as the number of those aged 60 years and above has increased drastically from 6.2 percent in 2000 and is expected to reach 13.6 percent by 2030. There are many challenges that will be faced due to the ageing population, one of which is the increasing cost of pensions in the future. In view of that, it is necessary to investigate the effect of actuarial assumptions on pension liabilities under the perspective of ageing. To estimate the pension liabilities, the Projected Unit Credit method is used in the study and commutation functions are employed in the process. Demographic risk and salary risk have been identified as major risks in analyzing pension liabilities in this study. The sensitivity analyses will be conducted in the study to investigate how the pension liabilities will be affected when these major risks changes. This study analyzes nine scenarios under assumptions in the actuarial model, namely age of retirement, rate of mortality and rate of salary growth. The result of this study indicates that the implied mortality experience and salary growth rate assumptions have a significant impact on pension liabilities.