In this paper, a qualitative consequence assessment method for damaged urban natural gas pipelines is proposed. It focuses on identifying reputation loss factors according to stakeholders’ (investors, customers, employees, and communities) perceptions. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is applied to prioritize these factors. Results show that the loss of customer confidence ranks as the highest contributor to an operator’s reputation loss due to a pipeline accident. Thus, better risk assessment of pipeline damage due to corrosion will be achieved with the inclusion of reputation loss in the consequence assessment. Hence, decision making in pipeline repair, inspection, and maintenance can be improved as well as a company’s annual profit margin.
The impact of onshore oil and gas pipeline accident i.e., explosion varies depending on the pipeline location, transported product, proximity of residential areas and etc. Pipeline owner's reputation is threatened once an accident takes place, which influences stakeholders' perceptions consequently. This study focuses on prioritizing the importance of the reputation loss factors according to the experts' judgments. Twenty two reputation loss factors were identified from 10 major pipeline explosion post-accident case studies. Nine experts were interviewed to rate importance level of the reputation loss factors using 10-point Likert scale rating method. The significance difference was obtained by the implementation of statistical analysis. Relative Importance Index (RII) was used to identify the importance level of the factor and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for prioritization process with the aid of Super Decisions software. Results show that all reputation loss factors are categorized within index number 4-10. The first factor with the highest importance value and priority vector corresponds to each stakeholder for both RII and AHP methods are similar, i.e., A2 "Services or sales progress disturbed", B1"Loss of customer confidence", D3 "Severity of accident" and C4 "CEO refuses to take responsibility". "Job application for positions reduced" is the least priority. Thus, understanding the importance of the reputation loss factors and identifying the priority of which factor to be taken care of are suggested to the pipeline operators in the post-accident responses. Hence, the reputation loss impact can be reduced and annual profit margin is secured.
Consequence assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment process. There are many types of consequences loss due to pipeline failure such as asset loss, environmental loss, production loss, and human health and safety loss (HHSL). This paper studies the comparison of HHSL between rural and urban areas due to pipeline failure subject to corrosion. The damage area of the explosion was calculated using Aloha software by considering the details of the selected sites such as atmospheric and topographical conditions. The HHSL was calculated using a mathematical equation of quantitative risk assessment in terms of the number of fatalities or injuries or both. The results of the assessments from rural and urban areas were then compared with one another to identify any significant dissimilarity. This study shows that there was a possibility to improve the decisive value of risk by implementing the proposed approach in consequence assessment in Malaysia.
Consequence assessment is an integral part of the risk assessment process carried out by the industry to minimize impact of assets failure on the environment, human safety, assets integrity and business reputation. A few components of consequences loss occur due to the pipeline failure, such as asset loss, environmental loss, production loss, public loss and Human Health and Safety Loss (HHSL). This study focuses on HHSL by considering the losses in term of monetary value between rural and urban areas due to pipeline failure. Based on the current technical standard practiced in the industry, the calculated consequences are speculated to generate an equal risk value to any area of the pipeline throughout the country, regardless of the areas unique local factors and consequences. Hence, this would lead to the deterioration in the quality of the estimated risk. As for the damaged area, Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) software was employed in the calculation of risk by considering the pipeline data and the details of selected sites such as atmospheric and demographic condition. The HHSL was calculated using a developed mathematical equation of quantitative risk assessment in terms of the number of fatalities or injuries or both in monetary value. The results of the assessments from rural and urban areas were then compared with one another to identify the occurrence of any significant dissimilarity. The major finding of this research showed that there is a possibility to enhance the decisive value of risk by implementing the proposed approach of HHSL estimation for consequence assessment.
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