We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984-2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length-mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) increased more than tenfold during 1987-2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

We review the status of the Lake Huron fish community between 1970 and 1999 and explore the effects of key stressors. Offshore waters changed little in terms of nutrient enrichment, while phosphorus levels declined in inner Saginaw Bay. Introduced mussels (Dreissena spp.) proliferated and may have caused a decline in Diporeia spp. This introduction could have caused a decline in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) growth and condition, with serious repercussions for commercial fisheries. Bythotrephes, an exotic predatory cladoceran, and other new exotics may be influencing the fish community. Sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) remained prevalent, but intensive control efforts on the St. Mary's River may reduce their predation on salmonines. Overfishing was less of a problem than in the past, although fishing continued to reduce the amount of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) spawning biomass resulting from hatchery-reared fish planted to rehabilitate this species. Massive stocking programs have increased the abundance of top predators, but lake trout were rehabilitated in only one area. Successful lake trout rehabilitation may require lower densities of introduced pelagic prey fish than were seen in the 1990s, along with continued stocking of hatchery-reared lake trout and control of sea lamprey. Such reductions in prey fish could limit Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) fisheries.

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