Became test information is important in attempting to hold schools accountable, the influence of tests on what is taught is potentially great. There is evidence that tests do influence teacher and student performance and that multiple-choice tests tend not to measure the more complex cognitive abilities. The more economical multiple-choice tests have nearly driven out other testing procedures that might be used in school evaluation. It is suggested that the greater cost of tests in other formats might be justified by their value for instruction-to encourage the teaching of higher level cognitive skills and to provide practice with feedback.

EVERAL years ago a conference was held in Washington, D.C., to consider the question of how to predict the behavior of a single individual. The reason the government was concerned about the question was because a single individual's behavior might be of critical importance to the United States-if he happened to be someone like Nikita Krushchev, who, at that time, had the power to commit his nation to economic and military acts that could affect the welfare and security of Americans.The fact that the question was posed and that a number of well-known behavioral scientists considered the question very seriously tells us something about the state of psychology as a science. Psychologists have developed a technology of prediction that depends almost wholly on individual differences, with heavy reliance on items of biographical history and measures of ability, attitude, and personality. The method works reasonably well when the problem is to make comparative statements about probable performance of many individuals-candidates for admission to college or applicants for a job. But the personnel psychologist, at least, is likely to be stumped when asked to make predictions about how a single individual's behavior will vary from one occasion to another over a period of time. Individual differences (at least as they are usually conceived) do not provide a solution to the problem, since they do not exist for a single individual.The personnel psychologist's solution to the prediction problem requires that we have a measure of criterion performance, y (e.g., a rating of job performance), and at least one measure of a perl This article was presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Washington, D.C., September 5, 1971. The article is based on portions of a book entitled Prediction of Organizational Behavior by N. Frederiksen, A. Beaton, and O. Jensen, with a contribution by B. Bloxom, to be published by Pergamon Press.

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Cognitive theories of problem solving and suggestions made by cognitive psychologists regarding how to teach problem solving are reviewed. Theories and suggestions from creativity research are also considered. The results are summarized in a description of how high levels of proficiency in problem solving are acquired and how problem solving skills might best be taught, keeping in mind a distinction between well-and ill-structured problems. The need for practice materials is discussed, and some desirable qualities of such materials are suggested. Finally, several unresolved issues regarding instructional methods are considered.

A set of Tests of Scientific Thinking were developed for possible use as criterion measures in research on creativity. Scores on the tests describe both quality and quantity of ideas produced in formulating hypotheses, evaluating proposals, solving methodological problems, and devising methods for measuring constructs. The tests were administered to 3,500 candidates for admission to graduate school in psychology, using an item‐sampling procedure. Reliabilities based on 45‐minute tests were adequate for research purposes. Correlations with GRE scores were low, especially for scores based on number of ideas. Follow‐up questionnaires were sent to students asking for information about graduate school attendance, grades, accomplishments during the first year of graduate study, and self‐appraisals of professional skills. Scores based on quantity (number of responses, number of unusual responses, and number of unusual responses that were also of high quality) were significantly related to self‐appraisals and to reports of such professional accomplishments as collaborating in research, publishing scientific papers, and designing and maintaining research apparatus. The quantity scores also were related to indices reflecting the quality of the department attended and to conventional evaluations of student performance. GRE scores were better at predicting these indices of quality but poorer as predictors on accomplishments and self‐appraisals.