The classic relationship between deposit rates and interest rate derivatives has been fractured since August 2007. Uncertainty in the interbank money market has increased the risk premia differentials on unsecured deposits rates of different tenors, such as Euribor, leading to a new pricing framework of interest rate derivatives based on multiple curves. This article analyzes the economic determinants of this new multi-curve framework. We employ basis swap (BS) spreadsfloating-to-floating interest rate swaps-as instruments for extracting the interest rate curve differentials. Our results show that the multi-curve framework mirrors the standard single-curve setting in terms of level, slope and curvature factors. The level factor captures 90% of the total variation in the curves, and this factor significantly covaries with a proxy for systemic risk.Moreover, the curve residuals are significantly correlated with interbank liquidity. Our empirical findings also show unidirectional causality running from risk (and liquidity) to level (and noise) factors.Keywords: Basis swap, noise measure, credit risk, liquidity risk, capital arbitrage JEL classification: G01, G12, G15, G32 AbstractThe classic relationship between deposit rates and interest rate derivatives has been fractured since August 2007. Uncertainty in the interbank money market has increased the risk premia differentials on unsecured deposits rates of different tenors, such as Euribor, leading to a new pricing framework of interest rate derivatives based on multiple curves.This article analyzes the economic determinants of this new multi-curve framework. We employ basis swap (BS) spreads -floating-to-floating interest rate swaps-as instruments for extracting the interest rate curve differentials. Our results show that the multi-curve framework mirrors the standard single-curve setting in terms of level, slope and curvature factors. The level factor captures 90% of the total variation in the curves, and this factor significantly covaries with a proxy for systemic risk. Moreover, the curve residuals are significantly correlated with interbank liquidity. Our empirical findings also show unidirectional causality running from risk (and liquidity) to level (and noise) factors.

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This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating-to-floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. We propose an empirical model to decompose BS quotes into expected and unexpected components. To estimate both unobservable constituents of BS spreads, we solve a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. Our empirical findings show that unexpected changes of BS spreads are linked to systemic risk. Shocks to aggregate liquidity are also important to explain regime shifts. Sovereign risk and risk aversion are relevant factors explaining expected fluctuations.

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating‐to‐floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. To identify the impact of shocks affecting interbank risk, we propose an empirical model that decomposes BS quotes into their expected and unexpected components. These unobservable constituents of BS spreads are estimated by solving a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. We find that expected components covariate with aggregate liquidity and risk aversion while systemic risk arises as the main driver behind unexpected fluctuations. Our empirical findings suggest that macroprudential analysis emerges as a key device to ease asset pricing in a new multi‐curve scenario.

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