This paper is effectively a scenario analysis of the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from the perspective of the possible future reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the power generation sector, with the aim to become climate neutral by 2050, in compliance with the Green Agenda for the Western Balkan. According to the data from 2016, the share of power generation in the total GHG emissions in BiH was approximately 50%. By using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) energy model, two scenarios—the “gradual transition scenario” and the “climate neutral” scenario—have been analyzed for the period 2018–2050, and each scenario included decarbonization measures such as the extensive use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Unlike the climate neutral scenario, the gradual transition scenario includes the replacement of certain parts of the old, currently-in-operation Coal-fired Power Plants (CFPPs) with the new CFPP, which is more efficient. In the climate-neutral scenario, that part of the existing CFPPs is replaced by a mix of RESs. The results from the first scenario suggest that the share of CFPPs in electricity generation has gradually decreased from 69.3% to 16.3% in 2050, and CO2 emissions from the power generation sector in 2050 will be 2.2 million tons—roughly 83.5% less than in 2014. According to the second scenario, the emphasis is strongly on the growth and promotion of RESs, which have significantly taken over the roles of major producers of electricity, encouraging the low-carbon development of BiH. Analysis results show that, in 2050, there will be no CO2 emissions from power generation. It can be concluded that specifically designed energy models for the optimization of capacities and CO2 emissions through convergence towards RESs could be an optimistic and promising option for BiH to become climate neutral while meeting increasing energy demands. The results show the required RES capacities needed for achieving climate-neutral power generation by 2050, with the current rate level of power generation. Based on the results, RES investment needs can be estimated. Overall, the results of the scenarios can be used for the strategic planning of the power generation sector in BiH until 2050.

The paper analyzes the potential of Biomass Combined Heat and Power (BCHP) plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in achieving climate neutrality until 2050. Two scenarios for reducing GHG emissions from the power generation sector in BiH until 2050 were developed. Scenarios were developed using LEAP, a software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment. The complete final energy consumption and existing primary energy mix in BiH were included. Both scenarios imply a significant reduction in electricity generation from coal-fired power plants (CFPP). The first scenario (S1) involves the construction of a substitute CFPP unlike the second scenario in which there is no construction of a new CFPP, but part of the reduction in electricity generation from the CFPPs is compensated by BCHPs. The second scenario (S2) achieves a significantly higher reduction in GHGs emissions and provides an answer to the question of how much wood biomass is needed for the operation of BCHP for enabling the decarbonization of the power generation sector by 2050. S1 also represents a step toward reducing GHG emissions. Emissions from power generation in 2030 are about 60% lower than in 2015, i.e. by closing part of the existing CFPPs fleet, while in 2050 GHG emissions will be reduced by 12.26 million tons of CO 2 eq compared to 2015. The main advantage of S2 is the gradual phase-out of CFPPs and construction of BCHPs, which means incomparably lower GHG emissions, negligible in 2050, representing a key argument for the deployment of biomass potential for power generation. The technical potential of unused wood biomass in BiH is 7.44 PJ annually or 620,620 t annually. These quantities would be sufficient for the levels of electricity production in Scenario 2 by 2035. After that, the existing available technical potential is not enough. This means that BiH needs to increase biomass production and its technical potential to enable the implementation of that scenario.