Droughts are more damaging when they occur during crop growing season. This research assessed the spatial distribution of drought risks to crops in Bangladesh. Catastrophe theory-based weighting method was used to estimate drought hazard, exposure, and risk by avoiding potential human bias. Ten major crops, including eight different types of rice, wheat, and potato, were selected for evaluation of drought risk. Results showed that 32.4%, 27.2%, and 16.2% of land in Bangladesh is prone to extreme Kharif (May-October), Rabi (November-April), and pre-Kharif (March-May) droughts, respectively. Among the major crops, Hybrid Boro rice cultivated in 18.2% of the area is found to be highly vulnerable to droughts, which is followed by High Yield Varity (HYV) Boro (16.9%), Transplant Aman (16.4%), HYV Aman (14.1%), and Basic Aman (12.4%) rice. Hybrid Boro rice in 12 districts, different varieties of Aman rice in 10 districts, and HYV Boro rice in 9 districts, mostly located in the north and northwest of Bangladesh, are exposed to high risk of droughts. High frequency of droughts and use of more land for agriculture have made the region highly prone to droughts. The methodology adopted in this study can be utilized for unbiased estimation of drought risk in agriculture in order to adopt necessary risk reduction measures.
In December 2014, Kelantan was hit by the worst flood ever recorded. Did the rainfall exceed historical records, how rare are they and what causes them? This paper answers these questions. Estimation of the return periods uses the GEV distribution model and stations with more than 25 years records. Spatial distribution plots of the cumulated rainfall depths were constructed using IDW interpolation method. Four major outcomes are: 1) Spatial rainfall patterns show high amounts of rainfall accumulated by phases (Phase 1- daily rainfall up to 300 mm; Phase 2- daily rainfall up to 500 mm); 2) record breaking rainfall events occurred at 9 stations significantly at Gunung Gagau (1598.9 mm compared to 976.5 mm 7-day cumulated rainfall). Many stations upstream of the river basin experienced ARIs near and over 100 years and several experienced more than 200 years; and 4) Enhanced rainfall were experienced due to the combined effect of the monsoon season, Madden Julian Oscillation and temperature below anomalies at the Siberian High
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