Background Many early warning scores (EWSs) have been validated to prognosticate adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in the Emergency Department (ED), including the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). However, the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) has not been widely validated for this purpose. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic utility of REMS with that of qSOFA, MEWS, and NEWS for predicting mortality in emergency COVID-19 patients. Methods We conducted a multi-center retrospective study at five EDs of various levels of care in Thailand. Adult patients visiting the ED who tested positive for COVID-19 prior to ED arrival or within the index hospital visit between January and December 2021 were included. Their EWSs at ED arrival were calculated and analysed. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was mechanical ventilation. Results A total of 978 patients were included in the study; 254 (26%) died at hospital discharge, and 155 (15.8%) were intubated. REMS yielded the highest discrimination capacity for in-hospital mortality (the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUROC) 0.771 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.738, 0.804)), which was significantly higher than qSOFA (AUROC 0.620 (95%CI 0.589, 0.651); p < 0.001), MEWS (AUROC 0.657 (95%CI 0.619, 0.694); p < 0.001), and NEWS (AUROC 0.732 (95%CI 0.697, 0.767); p = 0.037). REMS was also the best EWS in terms of calibration, overall model performance, and balanced diagnostic accuracy indices at its optimal cutoff. REMS also performed better than other EWSs for mechanical ventilation. Conclusion REMS was the early warning score with the highest prognostic utility as it outperformed qSOFA, MEWS, and NEWS in predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ED.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6 million deaths worldwide. The elderly accounted for a large proportion of patients with their mortality rate largely higher than the non-elderly. However, limited studies have explored clinical factors associated with poor clinical outcomes in this important population. Therefore, this study aimed to determine factors independently associated with adverse clinical outcomes among COVID-19 elderly patients. Methods We conducted a multicenter observational study at five emergency departments (EDs) in Thailand. Patients over 18 years old diagnosed with COVID-19 between January and December 2021 were included. We classified patients into elderly (age ≥ 65 years) and non-elderly (age < 65 years). The primary clinical outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes were endotracheal intubation and intensive care unit admission. We identified independent factors associating with these outcomes both in the whole population and separately by age group using multivariate logistic regression models. Results A total of 978 patients were included, 519 (53.1%) were elderly and 459 (46.9%) were non-elderly, and 254 (26%) died at hospital discharge. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the elderly group (39.1% versus 14.3%, p<0.001)). In the elderly, age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1—1.2; p<0.001), male sex (aOR 3.64; 95%CI 1.5–8.8; p=0.004), do-not-resuscitate (DNR) status (aOR 12.46; 95%CI 3.8–40.7; p<0.001), diastolic blood pressure (aOR 0.96; 95%CI 0.9–1.0; p=0.002), body temperature (aOR 1.74; 95%CI 1.0–2.9; p=0.036), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (aOR 0.71; 95%CI 0.5–1.0; p=0.026) were independent baseline and physiologic factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Only DNR status and GCS score were associated with in-hospital mortality in both the elderly and non-elderly, as well as the overall population. Lower total bilirubin was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in the elderly (aOR 0.34; 95%CI 0.1–0.9; p=0.035), while a higher level was associated with the outcome in the non-elderly. C-reactive protein (CRP) was the only laboratory factor independently associated with all three study outcomes in the elderly (aOR for in-hospital mortality 1.01; 95%CI 1.0–1.0; p=0.006). Conclusion Important clinical factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly COVID-19 patients were age, sex, DNR status, diastolic blood pressure, body temperature, GCS score, total bilirubin, and CRP. These parameters may aid in triage and ED disposition decision-making in this very important patient population during times of limited resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction High-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) is a respiratory support measure for coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) patients that has been increasingly used in the emergency department (ED). Although the respiratory rate oxygenation (ROX) index can predict HFNC success, its utility in emergency COVID-19 patients has not been well-established. Also, no studies have compared it to its simpler component, the oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2 [SF]) ratio, or its modified version incorporating heart rate. Therefore, we aimed to compare the utility of the SF ratio, the ROX index (SF ratio/respiratory rate), and the modified ROX index (ROX index/heart rate) in predicting HFNC success in emergency COVID-19 patients. Methods We conducted this multicenter retrospective study at five EDs in Thailand between January–December 2021. Adult patients with COVID-19 treated with HFNC in the ED were included. The three study parameters were recorded at 0 and 2 hours. The primary outcome was HFNC success, defined as no requirement of mechanical ventilation at HFNC termination. Results A total of 173 patients were recruited; 55 (31.8%) had successful treatment. The two-hour SF ratio yielded the highest discrimination capacity (AUROC 0.651, 95% CI 0.558–0.744), followed by two-hour ROX and modified ROX indices (AUROC 0.612 and 0.606, respectively). The two-hour SF ratio also had the best calibration and overall model performance. At its optimal cut-point of 128.19, it gave a balanced sensitivity (65.3%) and specificity (61.8%). The two-hour SF≥128.19 was also significantly and independently associated with HFNC failure (adjusted odds ratio 0.29, 95% CI 0.13–0.65; P=0.003). Conclusion The SF ratio predicted HFNC success better than the ROX and modified ROX indices in ED patients with COVID-19. With its simplicity and efficiency, it may be the appropriate tool to guide management and ED disposition for COVID-19 patients receiving HFNC in the ED.