Current development trends of the global and national economies require a search for effective approaches to expand participation of small agribusiness entities in providing population with domestic livestock products. The article focuses on state support programs for family livestock farms and novice farmers in the framework of the national project “Creating a system of support for farmers and the development of rural cooperation.” Development trends of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry in the Rostov region—a large agricultural region of Russia - have been noted. A deep comprehensive economic analysis of the composition and structure of financing state programs to support small regional agribusiness entities in the livestock industry was conducted, and the ways for its further development have been determined. Regional authorities have been established to be able to identify and significantly expand priority areas for the development of the meat and dairy cattle breeding industry, while consolidating state support measures regarding the distribution of grants to family farms and novice farmers. The need to develop industrial and economic relations of small business in the livestock sector of the region due to the system of consumer cooperation has been justified. A considerable potential for cooperation in the dairy industry has been noted. The methodology of the research on the problem was based on a system of general scientific and local methods and techniques. The information-analytical basis of the study was the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Rostov Region and data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.

The development of the agricultural sector and the entire national economy of Russia at the present stage is determined by the key realities of globalization trends and the mechanism of adaptation to them. The current confrontation of the interests of world powers under the influence of sanctions against Russia, which is a new form of global political and economic transformation, requires increased use of tools and mechanisms for state regulation of socio-economic processes, the main of which is strategic planning. The system of state planning has always been and remains the most important tool for justifying agricultural policy, both at the Federal and regional levels, which determines the search for the main trajectory of economic development of agricultural production sectors. The article deals with the deep causes of the protracted systemic crisis in the agricultural sector of the country’s economy. It is revealed that the lack of effective science-based tools of the state management system is becoming the main factor hindering the development of the country’s agricultural production sector. It is established that in the new Russian reality, state management of the agricultural sector of the economy should be based on its key function – strategic planning. The necessity of implementing a systematic campaign in planning is justified. Methodological aspects of the development and implementation of program-target planning in agriculture in Russia allowed us to identify the main shortcomings of the modern practice of planning and forecasting. The necessity of developing a strategy for the development of agriculture in the new macroeconomic conditions is justified. The developed model of a modern strategic planning system based on an integrated approach, including concepts, forecasts, economic orientation, plans, programs, excludes the possibility of fragmented planning and forecast management of the agricultural sector of the economy.

No abstract

The article considers transformation trends of conceptual approaches to planning and forecasting agricultural production in the context of the digitalization of the economy. The features of modern information and communication technologies applied in the farm production management have been studied. The implementation of “smart” technologies in Russian agriculture has been revealed to be not large-scale. It has been substantiated that digital technologies based on artificial intelligence, analysis of large data arrays, and a fundamentally new interaction interface—virtual and augmented reality—transform current methodological approaches to economic planning. Particular attention was paid to transformed conceptual approaches in the methodology of economic planning of domestic agricultural production. The Internet of Things and measuring elements equipped with microprocessors and sensors, as well as special platforms and applications for monitoring have been proved to change the prevailing concept of the organization of planning and forecasting activities in agriculture. Special attention was paid to the implementation of the departmental project “Digital Agriculture” that is creating a model for the transition of the strategic planning system to a digital format. The model reflects the integration trends of modern information and communication technologies with agribusiness and authorities.

Ключевые слова: сельское хозяйство; техническое обеспечение; обновление парка сельскохозяйственной техники; модернизация сельского хозяйства; регрессионный анализ; Ростовская область. Аннотация: Инновационное развитие агропромышленного комплекса требует технической модернизации отрасли, поэтому вопросы обновления машинно-тракторного парка, повышения уровня механизации агропромышленного производства в современный период приобретают особую актуальность. В статье проведен ретроспективный анализ состава и структуры сельскохозяйственной техники в аграрном секторе России, а также темпов ее обновления за последние 27 лет. Проведенные исследования позволили выявить отрицательную динамику технического обеспечения отрасли сельского хозяйства. Предметом исследования послужил процесс технической модернизации отрасли и влияющие на него факторы. Расчетно-аналитическим инструментарием исследуемой проблемы выступили экономико-математические методы, в частности регрессионное моделирование. Основные исследования проведены на примере Ростовской области, как одного из лидеров аграрного производства в России, характеризующегося высоким уровнем обновления машинно-тракторного парка сельского хозяйства. Результаты экономико-статистического анализа определили факторы, влияющие на объем приобретения технических средств в сельском хозяйстве, среди которых индексация цены на сельскохозяйственную технику, рентабельность производства, цена за 1 т пшеницы, размер господдержки на технику (всех уровней), чистая прибыль на 100 га пашни, курс рубля по отношению к доллару, урожайность зерновых культур. В результате проведенного регрессионного анализа была разработана экономико-математическая модель, определившая степень влияния каждого фактора на процесс технического обновления сельского хозяйства Ростовской области. Оценка качества надежности полученной модели демонстрирует существенную зависимость между объемами приобретения сельскохозяйственной техники и урожайностью зерновых культур. С помощью инструментов экономико-математического моделирования доказано, что государственная поддержка не воздействует на модернизацию отрасли.