The authors conducted a long-term follow-up study of 168 patients to define the natural history of clinically unruptured intracranial arteriovenous malformations (AVM's). Charts of patients seen at the Mayo Clinic between 1974 and 1985 were reviewed. Follow-up information was obtained on 166 patients until death, surgery, or other intervention, or for at least 4 years after diagnosis (mean follow-up time 8.2 years). All available cerebral arteriograms and computerized tomography scans of the head were reviewed. Intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 31 patients (18%), due to AVM rupture in 29 and secondary to AVM or aneurysm rupture in two. The mean risk of hemorrhage was 2.2% per year, and the observed annual rates of hemorrhage increased over time. The risk of death from rupture was 29%, and 23% of survivors had significant long-term morbidity. The size of the AVM and the presence of treated or untreated hypertension were of no value in predicting rupture.

Background and Purpose-There is scant population-based information on functional outcome, survival, and recurrence for ischemic stroke subtypes. Methods-We identified all residents of Rochester, Minnesota, with a first ischemic stroke from 1985 through 1989 using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records linkage system. After reviewing medical records and imaging studies, we assigned patients to 4 major ischemic stroke categories based on National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke Data Bank criteria: large-vessel cervical or intracranial atherosclerosis with stenosis (ATH, nϭ74), cardioembolic (CE, nϭ132), lacunar (LAC, nϭ72), and infarct of uncertain cause (IUC, nϭ164). We used the Rankin disability score to assess functional outcome and the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with bootstrap validation to estimate rates and identify predictors of survival and recurrent stroke among these patients. Results-Rankin disabilities were different across stroke subtypes at the time of stroke and 3 months and 1 year later (Pϭ0.001). LAC was associated with milder deficits compared with other subtypes. Mean follow-up among the 442 patients in the cohort was 3.2 years. Estimated rates of recurrent stroke at 30 days were significantly different (PϽ0.001): ATH, 18.5% (95% CI 9.4% to 27.5%); CE, 5.3% (95% CI 1.2% to 9.6%); LAC, 1.4% (95% CI 0.0% to 4.1%); and IUC, 3.3% (95% CI 0.4% to 6.2%). After adjusting for age, sex, and stroke severity, infarct subtype was an independent determinant of recurrent stroke within 30 days (Pϭ0.0006; eg, risk ratio for ATH compared with CEϭ3.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 9.3) but not long term (Pϭ0.07). Four of 25 recurrent strokes within 30 days were procedure-related, each in patients with ATH. Five-year death rates were significantly different (PϽ0.001): ATH, 32.2% (95% CI 21.1% to 43.2%); CE, 80.4% (95% CI 73.1% to 87.6%); LAC, 35.1% (95% CI 23.6% to 46.0%); and IUC, 48.6% (95% CI 40.5% to 56.7%). With adjustment for age, sex, cardiac comorbidity, and stroke severity, the subtype of ischemic stroke was an independent determinant of long-term (Pϭ0.018; eg, risk ratio for ATH compared with cardioembolicϭ0.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.77) but not 30-day survival (Pϭ0.2). Conclusions-Early recurrence rates for ischemic stroke caused by ATH are higher than those for other subtypes and higher than previous non-population-based studies have reported. Some of the increased risk of early recurrence among patients with ATH may be iatrogenic. Patients with LAC have better poststroke functional status than those with other subtypes. Survival is poorest among those with ischemic stroke with a cardiac source of embolism. (Stroke.

Over the past 4 decades, the incidence of SLE has nearly tripled, and there has been a statistically significant improvement in survival. These findings are likely due to a combination of improved recognition of mild disease and better approaches to therapy.

The authors report the results of a long-term follow-up study of 130 patients with 161 unruptured intracranial saccular aneurysms. Their findings suggest that unruptured saccular aneurysms less than 10 mm in diameter have a very low probability of subsequent rupture. The mean diameter of the aneurysms that subsequently ruptured was 21.3 mm, compared with a diameter of 7.5 mm for aneurysms defined after rupture at the same institution. Part of the explanation for this discrepancy may be that the size of the filling compartment of the aneurysm decreases after rupture. There is also evidence from the present study that intracranial saccular aneurysms develop with increasing age of the patient and stabilize over a relatively short period, if they do not initially rupture, and that the likelihood of subsequent rupture decreases considerably if the initial stabilized size is less than 10 mm in diameter. Consequently, the critical size for aneurysm rupture is likely to be smaller if rupture occurs at the time of or soon after aneurysm formation. There seems to be a substantial difference in potential for growth and rupture between previously ruptured and unruptured aneurysms.

To define the natural history of relapsing polychondritis, the probability of survival and causes of death were determined in 112 patients seen at one institution. By using covariate analysis, early clinical manifestations were identified that predicted mortality. The 5- and 10-year probabilities of survival after diagnosis were 74% and 55%, respectively. The most frequent causes of death were infection, systemic vasculitis, and malignancy. Only 10% of the deaths could be attributed to airway involvement by chondritis. Anemia at diagnosis was a marker for decreased survival in the entire group. There was an interaction between other disease variables and age in determining their impact on outcome. For patients less than 51 years old, saddle-nose deformity and systemic vasculitis were the worst prognostic signs. For older patients, only anemia predicted outcome. The need for corticosteroid therapy did not influence survival.