The relevance of the study of current and forecasted transformations of the social capital of territorial communities is due to the need to strengthen social capital at the local level as a means of consolidating the population in the conditions of the destabilizing pressure of war and the risks of reducing the regulatory capabilities of state administration. The purpose of the study is to reveal the transformational shifts in the social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods. The scientific novelty of the work consists in revealing the peculiarities of the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the humanitarian crisis caused by it on the trends of the development of social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine. Forecasting of social capital transformations is based on the use of systemic approach, methods of abstraction and generalization, modeling, and scenario forecasting of time series. The use of the scenario approach is due to the low predictability and instability of military actions and includes realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic forecast versions. The prediction according to the realistic version is based on the assumption of building up the potential of social capital by the communities of the country and, above all, the territories freed from temporary occupation. It is substantiated that social capital will grow mainly within the community and to a lesser extent outside it, which is due to the residents’ need to identify themselves with the community and its values in conditions of threat to life. The surge of social capital and high motivation of the population will be manifested in the active participation of residents in the public life of territorial communities and the post-war reconstruction of the economy. The trends of the social capital transformation are substantiated for three groups of communities: temporarily occupied territories, territorial communities of the «near rear», and communities of the «deep rear». The optimistic version is based on the assumption that in the forecast period, the transformation of social capital will take place in the conditions of the successful end of hostilities and the liberation of the territory of Ukraine from the occupying forces. It is expected that in the conditions of the post-war reconstruction of communities, the multiplier effect of increasing financial capacity will have a positive impact on the social capital of the community and will manifest itself in the strengthening of the residents’ sense of social protection and the reduction of the economic anxiety level. According to the pessimistic version, the transformation of the social capital of territorial communities will take place in the conditions of a repeated massive offensive of Russian troops and the capture of new territories, which may cause a decrease in the level of trust between residents in the struggle for limited resources, discord, and a decrease in civic participation.

In the paper, the regularities of the formation of social capital as a component of the problem of capitalization of social interaction have been studied. The methodological approach of the research includes two aspects: theoretical, the purpose of which is to substantiate the theoretical structure of the regularities of the formation of social capital; analytical, according to which the manifestation of the revealed regularities in Ukraine and other countries has been assessed. Four main regularities have been considered (empathy, risk reflectivity, migration impact, norm correspondence), which determine the functioning of the essential elements of social capital, as well as the features of transformation and conversion of its forms. The selection of proper economic indicators that reflect trends in the manifestation of social capital formation has been performed. The results of analytical assessment of the actualization of the specified regularities in Ukraine compared to other countries have been presented. The research revealed that empathy, as a relationship between rationality and sociality of human interaction, constitutes a solid foundation for the development of social capital and has the most vivid and positive manifestations in Ukrainian society when economic agents readily and carefully respond to the needs of their counterparts in social relations. The paper demonstrates the features of the differentiation of forms of social capital according to the direction of internal connections within social networks and the homogeneity (density) of social networks. The determinism of the variability of the forms of social capital is substantiated by the different perceptions of risks by the agents of social interaction. The low tolerance of Ukrainian economic agents to risk has been registered. This determines their preferences regarding participation in vertical and closed social networks. The relationship between migration (mobility) and social trust is revealed. It is argued that the relationship manifests itself in the generally ambiguous impact of immigration to Ukraine and emigration from Ukraine on the functioning of trust networks. This testifies to the possibilities and reserves of managing such an impact to increase social capital in the country. The objective relationship between trust in social norms (the degree of their social recognition and acceptance) and the productivity of social capital is specified. It has been observed that in Ukraine, a critically low level of trust in social norms and norm-setting institutions contributes to the development of corruption and destructive social networks.