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In this paper, a possibility to forecast El Niño and La Niña by using an artificial intelligence model based on neural networks is studied. The quality of such a long-term climate forecast is assessed too. A set of global climatic indices of atmosphere-ocean system oscillations in 1950-2019 is used as input parameters of the model. The Nino3.4 index is calculated by using monthly average 500mb geopotential height and sea surface temperature fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets. A verification of the model is carried out by using a control sample of 1950–1957. Additionally, the same indices of 1872-1947 are calculated by using 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets to test the model. A possibility to predict the Nino3.4 index for 2 to 7 months is shown. However, in spite of a high-level reconstruction of the index dynamics, increasing the time of forecasting is accompanied by decreasing its quality. With 20CR data it is shown that the model is able to successfully predict the beginning of 75% of El Niño and La Niña for 3 months, 66% of the events for 5 months, and only 52% for 7 months in advance.

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The climatic and orographic features of the Sevastopol region are the basis for the development of viticulture, winemaking and obtaining a wide range of high-quality wines. Viticulture is a specialization of agriculture in the Sevastopol region. Observed and predicted climate changes lead to a shift in favorable zones for growing grapes. The amount of precipitation is a key parameter, along with air temperature, for obtaining high quality grapes, and later wine. The water requirements of grapes vary with the season and phase of plant development. The article assesses the possible changes in the conditions of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for the grapes growing. The work uses data from numerical calculations of global climate models of the CMIP6 project under an unfavorable scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations SSP5-8.5. The assessment was carried out using two agroclimatic indices - the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and the dryness index, by the middle and end of the 21st century. According to the predicted values of agroclimatic indices, by the middle and the end of the century, the Sevastopol region will remain in the zone where the cultivation of grapes will be possible without irrigation. The results obtained showed the likelihood of an increase in the aridity of the region in future periods, especially towards the end of the century, which will entail additional stress for the grapes. Adaptation measures such as selection of drought-tolerant grape varieties, changes in tillage systems, and placement of vineyards on northern slopes will be required to minimize unfavorable conditions.