This study examined the relationship between money supply and stock prices, using E-view version 10. The empirical results of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test at 5 percent critical levels indicates that all the variables (M2 and MCAP) were not stationary at levels. However, all the variables became stationary after first differencing. Hence, the variables are of the same order of integration I (1). A cointegration test tells us that there exists a long run relationship between or among the variables and that they will not wander far apart away even though on the short run they exhibit random walk behavior. The Vector Error Correction test shows that Money supply (M2) has a significant relationship with market capitalization of the Nigerian stock exchange. The value of the Adjusted R-Squared of 0.726710 implies that Money supply (M2) explained about 72.67% systematic variations in the dependent variable (MCAP) over the observed years while the remaining 27.33% variations are explained by other determining variables outside the model. In order to further establish the relationship between money supply and stock market price, a granger causality test was carried out and it was established that there is a bi-directional causality between money supply and stock prices. The researcher therefore recommends that there should be collaboration among agencies of government in charge of money supply and stock exchange in order to make sure that sound policies are made to achieve the objective of government. Furthermore, that there should be a deliberate and concerted policy and effort to improve the Nigerian stock exchange market in line with other stock exchanges of the world, since stock prices cause money supply and vice versa.
This study modeled volatility and daily exchange rate movement in Nigeria with daily exchange rate between Nigeria Naira and US Dollar from January 2, 2001 to May 20, 2019 collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The results of the estimated models revealed that conditional variance (volatility) has positive and significant relationship with exchange rate returns between Nigeria Naira and US Dollars, which corroborates the theory that predicts positive relationship between return and volatility for risk averse investors. Also found that exchange rate volatility between Naira / US Dollar is persistent. It was also discovered that goods news produces more volatility than bad news of equal magnitude. The researchers therefore suggested that the Central Bank of Nigeria should always proffer timely intervention to reduce the volatility persistence. This will go a long way to counteract or moderate the excess volatility between Naira and US Dollar transactions.
This study investigated a pertinent question on the lips of every Nigerian; exchange rate regime, Quo Vadis Nigeria? Nigeria, Quo Vadis (where do we go)? under two alternative managed floating regimes; Dutch Auction System and post Dutch Auction System regimes, within the Autoregressive Distributive Lag methodology using monthly data covering from July 2002 to July 2017. The results for the full sample show that none of the selected macroeconomic variables has a significant short run relationship with the nominal effective exchange rate. In the long run, all the variables, except interbank rate, show negative relationship with nominal effective exchange rate. However, while the effects of oil prices, interbank rate and the prime lending rate are significant, the effects of inflation and stock prices are insignificant. The results for the Dutch Auction System sample show little evidence of a negative short run relationship between nominal effective exchange rate and inflation while oil prices, prime lending rate, interbank rate and stock prices all show no evidence of a short run relationship with exchange rate. On the contrary, oil prices, prime lending rates and stock prices all show significant negative long run relationship with nominal effective exchange rate. The results for the post Dutch Auction System sample show evidence of a positive short run relationship between stock prices, interbank rate and nominal effective exchange rate. On the other hand, inflation, oil prices and prime lending rate show no short run relationship nominal effective exchange rate. However, there is evidence of a lagged positive relationship between inflation and nominal exchange rate. The cointegration test for post Dutch Auction System sample gives inconclusive results. We therefore, conclude that the choice of exchange rate regime matters for macroeconomics performance in Nigeria and that the closure of the Dutch Auction system by the monetary authorities significantly altered the relationship between nominal exchange effective exchange rate and macroeconomic variables.
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