Abstract:The rural population in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), which constitutes more than half of the total population, experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades. This part of the population is vulnerable to climate change due to significant dependence on agriculture as a climate-sensitive livelihood option. However, the source of their vulnerability is due not only to the extent and magnitude of these extreme climate events, but also to the internal status within the vulnerable systems before the occurrence of such events. In order to explore the different dimensions of vulnerability, we used a set of 20 indicators to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the rural population to climate change at the local level in BH. Two summarizing and two weighting methods were applied to assess vulnerability-Equal weights (EW) and principal component analysis (PCA). Based on the results obtained, we concluded that the current socio-economic conditions and the increased environmental pressure as a result of the present human-environment interactions are the main determinants of vulnerability in most vulnerable municipalities, rather than the degree to which these municipalities are exposed to significant climatic variations. Most vulnerable municipalities are located across the north, with a gradual decrease in vulnerability towards the central, north, and east of the country. Vulnerability increases again from here towards the south of the country. The number of municipalities classified as the highest and highly vulnerable increased when the second summarizing method and weighted indicators were used. However, the general geographic distribution of vulnerability did not change substantially compared to the first method. The approaches used in this study provide some valuable results at the local level, and are presented in a way that is practical for decision-making processes and may serve as a base for further research when designing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, especially in the regions with similar climatic and socio-economic conditions.

Abstract:Half of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BH) population lives in rural areas. Agricultural production is a backbone of the rural economy and generates significant economic value for the country. BH is highly vulnerable to climate change, which poses a significant development challenge given the climate-sensitivity of the agricultural sector, the share of agriculture in the total economy, the number of people employed in the sector, and the closely related socio-economic issues of food security. BH has experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events over the past two decades, causing severe economic losses. Based on available data and currently available climate projections, exposure to threats from climate change will continue to increase. The review paper presents the current state of the BH agricultural sector and the impact of potential climate change on agricultural systems. It proposes policy options to optimize opportunities and mitigate consequences of possible climate change in the agricultural sector. Development of policy and research capacity should include harmonisation and centralisation of domestic agricultural policies, carrying out a vulnerability assessment and strengthening the public and private extension systems. Further technological development should include improvements in weather and climate information systems, crop development, irrigation and water management.

This study analyzes farm households’ adaptation in a broad livelihood context, showing how both household internal dynamics and broader external factors, such as agro-ecological, climatic, and institutional economic and political frame conditions, influence both the perception of and adaptation to climate variations and change. Nearly a third of the households in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) are engaged in agriculture as one livelihood strategy to cope with the multiple shocks experienced over the past three decades, resulting in economic decline and loss of income opportunities. Based on a household survey, we analyzed the livelihoods of households in three agricultural regions in BH: how they are affected by climate change, their perceptions of climatic change, as well as various household adaptation strategies. The results were discussed in the context of the sustainable livelihoods approach. Our results indicate that rural households are relatively asset poor and highly dependent on agriculture, irrespective of geographical location or wealth. Their access to assets is further constrained by the ongoing changes in economic and political structures and processes. Negative effects of climate change were reported in terms of yield decline and reduced quality of products. On a positive note, the level of adoption of different agricultural practices and technologies indicates signs of an overall intensification strategy of agricultural production in BH, as well as adaptation to the perceived changes in climate and climate variability using the available asset base.

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