The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans’ mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis.

Mountain ecosystems across South Asia are facing huge pressure and are threatened by different drivers of loss. Red List of Ecosystems, to assess risks and ecosystem health, offers an exciting prospect to address complex challenges faced by ecosystems. This opinion is an outcome of the brainstorming organized to mark the International Mountain Day in December 2020, followed by further discussions among key stakeholders for initiating the Red List of Ecosystem (RLE) assessment in the region. As an initial endeavor, we have explored the evidence available to be integrated with the basic RLE requirements to undertake the ecosystem health assessment for mountain ecosystems in South Asia. We argue that the existing data gaps and insufficient understanding of the RLE process are a key-barriers to initiating ecosystem health assessment for supporting and contributing to knowledge-based conservation, governance, livelihood, land use, and macroeconomic planning. The RLE-based planning should be expanded and implemented for diverse ecosystems by enhancing transboundary cooperation, research collaboration, co-production of knowledge, and involving local communities. This opinion paper is an effort to facilitate, encourage and enhance discussions among wider stakeholders for developing a multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary network of experts in the region for undertaking large scale RLE assessment for different mountain ecosystems that are threatened by an array of drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. This can guide strategic conservation efforts to halt and reverse the losses by community supported landscape restoration programmes.

Expansion of aquaculture in the Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) is irreversibly replacing agricultural land and the drivers of this change are disputed. Based on in-depth interviews with 67 aquaculture farmers, this paper characterizes major aquaculture types in the SBR, their impacts, and identifies drivers of conversion from agricultural land. Aquaculture types included traditional, improvedtraditional, modified-extensive, and semi-intensive systems. Extensive capture of wild shrimp larvae is environmentally harmful but constitutes an important livelihood. Semi-intensive aquaculture of exotic shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) has much higher unit-area profitability than other types but involves greater financial risk. Profitability is the main driver for the transition from agriculture, but environmental factors such as lowered crop yields and cyclone impacts also contributed. Many conversions from agriculture to aquaculture are illegal according to the stakeholders. Existing legislation, if enforced, could halt the loss of agriculture, while the promotion of improved-traditional aquaculture could reduce the demand for wild seed.

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