The moment magnitude (Mw) 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, with a approximately 350-kilometer-long surface rupture, was the most recent major earthquake along the south-central San Andreas Fault, California. Based on previous measurements of its surface slip distribution, rupture along the approximately 60-kilometer-long Carrizo segment was thought to control the recurrence of 1857-like earthquakes. New high-resolution topographic data show that the average slip along the Carrizo segment during the 1857 event was 5.3 +/- 1.4 meters, eliminating the core assumption for a linkage between Carrizo segment rupture and recurrence of major earthquakes along the south-central San Andreas Fault. Earthquake slip along the Carrizo segment may recur in earthquake clusters with cumulative slip of approximately 5 meters.
The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross-correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple-event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from $1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 6 1.1 m (2r). Vertical offsets are predominantly east-down between $0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 6 0.5 m. The average lateral-to-vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is $6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7-11 m and net average of 4.4 6 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M w $7.5 for the 1872 event.We attribute progressively higher-offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 6 2.0 m, 12.8 6 1.5 m, and 16.6 6 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between $0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1r) over the late Quaternary.
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