The first case of COVID-19 originated in Wuhan, China, after which it spread across more than 200 countries. By 21 July 2020, the rapid global spread of this disease had led to more than 15 million cases of infection, with a mortality rate of more than 4.0% of the total number of confirmed cases. This study aimed to predict the prevalence of COVID-19 and to investigate the effect of awareness and the impact of treatment in Saudi Arabia. In this paper, COVID-19 data were sourced from the Saudi Ministry of Health, covering the period from 31 March 2020 to 21 July 2020. The spread of COVID-19 was predicted using four different epidemiological models, namely the susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR), generalized logistic, Richards, and Gompertz models. The assessment of models’ fit was performed and compared using four statistical indices (root-mean-square error (RMSE), R squared (R2), adjusted R2 ( Radj2), and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC)) in order to select the most appropriate model. Modified versions of the SIR model were utilized to assess the influence of awareness and treatment on the prevalence of COVID-19. Based on the statistical indices, the SIR model showed a good fit to reported data compared with the other models (RMSE = 2790.69, R2 = 99.88%, Radj2 = 99.98%, and AIC = 1796.05). The SIR model predicted that the cumulative number of infected cases would reach 359,794 and that the pandemic would end by early September 2020. Additionally, the modified version of the SIR model with social distancing revealed that there would be a reduction in the final cumulative epidemic size by 9.1% and 168.2% if social distancing were applied over the short and long term, respectively. Furthermore, different treatment scenarios were simulated, starting on 8 July 2020, using another modified version of the SIR model. Epidemiological modeling can help to predict the cumulative number of cases of infection and to understand the impact of social distancing and pharmaceutical intervention on the prevalence of COVID-19. The findings from this study can provide valuable information for governmental policymakers trying to control the spread of this pandemic.

BackgroundWith significant numbers of individuals in the criminal justice system having mental health problems, court-based diversion programmes and liaison services have been established to address this problem.AimsTo examine the effectiveness of the New South Wales (Australia) court diversion programme in reducing re-offending among those diagnosed with psychosis by comparing the treatment order group with a comparison group who received a punitive sanction.MethodThose with psychoses were identified from New South Wales Ministry of Health records between 2001 and 2012 and linked to offending records. Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with re-offending.ResultsA total of 7743 individuals were identified as diagnosed with a psychotic disorder prior to their court finalisation date for their first principal offence. Overall, 26% of the cohort received a treatment order and 74% received a punitive sanction. The re-offending rate in the treatment order group was 12% lower than the punitive sanction group. ‘Acts intended to cause injury’ was the most common type of the first principal offence for the treatment order group compared with the punitive sanction group (48% v. 27%). Drug-related offences were more likely to be punished with a punitive sanction than a treatment order (12% v. 2%).ConclusionsAmong those with a serious mental illness (i.e. psychosis), receiving a treatment order by the court rather than a punitive sanction was associated with reduced risk for subsequent offending. We further examined actual mental health treatment received and found that receiving no treatment following the first offence was associated with an increased risk of re-offending and, so, highlighting the importance of treatment for those with serious mental illness in the criminal justice system.

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This population-based case-control study examines the association between psychosis and criminal convictions in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using data from several health and offending administrative data collections. Cases were individuals diagnosed with psychosis between 2001 and 2012 ( n = 86,461). For each case, two age- and sex-matched controls with no diagnosis of psychosis were selected. Criminal convictions were identified using the NSW Reoffending Database. Cases were approximately 5 times more likely to offend compared with controls, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) = [4.55, 4.81], and accounted for 10% of all criminal convictions in NSW between 2001 and 2015. The prevalence of at least one criminal conviction was 30% among cases compared with 6% among controls. The results from this study confirm previous work regarding the association between psychosis and criminal convictions. More work is needed to better articulate the mechanisms for this association to enable prevention strategies to be developed.