This study expounds empirical evaluation of (a) the interrelation between higher education expenditure and the share of highly qualified employed population of Ukraine, (b) the dependence of the population qualification level on the higher education expenditure in foreign countries and (c) the dependence of these countries’ GDP on the qualification of people. It has been hypothesized that an increase in funding for higher education contributes to the growth of the share of highly qualified population and the GDP volume per capita. The regression analysis results indicate inverse dependence of the population's qualification on real expenditure on higher education in Ukraine, that is, as the expenditure decreases, the share of population with high qualification increases, while the number of higher school teachers goes down. This situation is inconsistent with economic theory and is fraught with long-term adverse consequences for the national economy. The analysis of the average figures in 24 foreign countries has not revealed a pronounced dependence of the population qualification on expenditure on higher education and that of GDP on qualification. Nevertheless, the general trend is observed, i.e., in the countries with heavier expenditure on higher education there is a higher percentage of qualified population and higher GDP. The same trend, but in a more explicit form, has been established based on the results of regression analysis for the individual EU countries, confirming the research hypothesis.
The article is devoted to defining the influence of monetary policy on the development of national production and substantiating the prospects for its monetary regulation. It has been established that in recent years the monetary policy of Ukraine has been unfavourable for the industrial development in Ukraine. The NBU, which adheres to the monetary regime of inflation targeting, pursues a relatively strict policy, in particular, maintaining the real key rate at a level above neutral and low growth rates of the real money supply. As a result, for many years the national industry has been operating in conditions of a chronic shortage of working capital and investments, which exacerbates the problems of its development. To establish the nature and strength of the influence of monetary factors on long-term economic growth in Ukraine, a new economic and mathematical model based on production functions has been developed. Its parameterization showed that national output directly depends on the increase in invested labour, and vice versa – on the increase in Hryvnia exchange rate to U.S. Dollar (discourages exports) and U.S. Dollar Index (worsens the foreign economic situation). The impact on the increase in the real money supply can also have a positive impact on the economy, but its strength depends on the growth rate of broad money (with controlled inflation). At moderate rates, typical for the basic scenario of long-term development of the Ukrainian economy, investments are not increasing as vigorously as it is necessary for accelerated growth of real GDP and incomes of citizens. An increase in the growth rate of the real money supply (up to about 15% per year), set forth in the accelerated development scenario, can provide better results. It is proved that despite the importance of monetary variables, the key factors influencing the links in the chain "real money supply – investment – industrial growth" should be sought outside the monetary sphere proper. Stable expansion of the monetary base and growth of the real money supply do matter, but they are not able to solve the fundamental problems of modernization of economic institutions, structural restructuring of the economy and overcoming technological gaps with industrialized countries. It follows from this that in Ukrainian economy in the long run it is important for the regulator to maintain stable growth of the real money supply and controlled inflation, but this will be of fundamental importance for solving the accumulated problems only if the policies of the regulator and the government are coordinated, which should create favourable conditions and form appropriate institutions to reduce the dependence of the economy on raw material exports, accelerate national technical and technological development and increase its overall level.
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