The purpose of the article is to analyse the trends of labour migration from Ukraine under the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19. The subject of the research is international labour migration in Ukraine. The study should predict the consequences of the coronavirus crisis for labour migration and place of Ukraine in the world labour market in the nearest future. Methodological basis of the research comprised the list of theoretical and empirical methods of research; there was provided the analysis of recent research publications subject under the discussion, compared the results obtaining with statistical data, suggested the practical recommendations that were received on the base of survey results. Researches in a number of OECD countries have found that the risk of infection among migrants is at least two times higher as among locals. The number of international migrants is declined in 2020 for the first time in recent history, as the number of new migrants slows down and re-emigration rates substantially increased. Ukraine has the highest rates of permanent immigrants among European countries. In 2019, there was among approximately 5 million people of foreign origin in Ukraine, the largest migration groups were from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia, and Uzbekistan. At the same time, Ukraine ranked 8th in the world and 2nd in Europe for emigration in 2019. Ukraine was the largest country of origin of refugees in Europe amounted to 93 thousand people at the end of 2018. In 2019, as in previous decades, the largest migration corridors in Europe were in Ukraine, including the Russia-Ukraine and Ukraine-Russia corridors, which held the first positions in the volume of migration in this part of the world. The military conflict in the East of Ukraine has strengthened the current trend towards reorienting of Ukrainian migration to the West. The employment structure of Ukrainian labour migrants is mostly inefficient, as only 26.8% of Ukrainian workers are employed abroad according to the qualifications obtained. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected virtually all spheres of public life; it has affected emigration from Ukraine, a crucial factor of which has been the introduction of lockdown in key host countries of Ukrainian labour migration, in particular, in the EU. However, the existence of an unconditional demand for Ukrainian workers in the labour-importer countries has led to the solution of problems with access of workers in an ad hoc manner in the first half of 2020, in particular, through the organization of workers transportation from Ukraine for seasonal work. The results of the study have shown that despite the fact that the structure of permanent migration from Ukraine is dominated by migration to the Russian Federation, trends in long-term and especially in temporary labour migration since 2014 and until now, clearly indicate a change in the vector of labour movement towards the EU. Labour emigration is not able to solve the problem of Ukraine’s economic development; it just solves the task of maintaining the welfare of the migrant families and provides the opportunities to develop the human capital of migrant children, primarily through funding by means of migration capital their education in Ukraine. Analysis of the current global and national economic situation, regulatory measures, both in Ukraine and in the countries of migration destination, which directly or indirectly affect migration flows, indicates that in the medium term we cannot predict that the COVID-19 pandemic will significantly affect large-scale labour migration.
The article outlines the perspective benefits of deepening integration processes between Ukraine and the European Union. Groups of Ukrainian goods have been identified, which exports to the EU are increasing dynamically. EU countries have been identified in which exports from Ukraine have been growing rapidly in recent years. The relations and nature of Ukraine's trade with the EU countries have been analyzed. The conclusions on the development of trade potential after signing the Association Agreement with the EU have been formulated. The assessment of the Complementarity Index of Trade for Ukraine and the EU by 97 commodity groups according to the Ukrainian Classification of Goods for Foreign Economic Activity and the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System for 2011-2018 has been carried out. The dynamics of change of complementarity indices are analyzed and the predicted indices of the countries for 2019 and 2020 are calculated. It has been proven that mutual trade in a free trade area is mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the EU, as Ukraine and the EU benefit from increased trade, and establishing international partnerships between their businesses and organizations can be particularly beneficial in the long term perspective. It is proposed to deepen international industry cooperation in order to develop competitive advantages and strengthen its position both on the Ukrainian market and the European market.
The article identifies the volume of underserved markets for the development of Ukraine's foreign trade with the EU. The Ukraine's export potential on the EU underserved market is analyzed. It is established that the intensification of trade relations between the Ukraine and EU is a mutually beneficial process, and export potential of Ukraine in the EU market for goods whose exports to the Russian Federation have decreased is of particular importance. The main foreign markets of Ukraine for the export of agricultural and industrial goods from Ukraine have been identified. The main commodity groups of underserved markets to the EU have been identified, the exports of which to the Russian Federation have decreased the most. According to the results of the study, it has been concluded that the underserved markets of the European Union play an important role in the development of Ukraine's trade: first, they allow reorientation of exports of Ukrainian goods, the import of which is prohibited into the customs territory of the Russian Federation, to EU markets; secondly, they help to identify directions for the modernization of Ukrainian production in accordance with the unmet needs of the European goods market. It is concluded that the process of deepening mutual trade in underserved markets in a free trade area is mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the European Union, as trading partners can benefit from increased trade flows, and establishing international partnership between the parties can bring additional benefits in the long run.
World Trade Organization, tariff, technical regulation, agriculture,
The purpose of research is to analyze the reasons and effects of disintegration with Russia for Ukraine and its association with the EU. Expected results of the Association Agreement with the EU and conflict with Russia in previous research are compared with the actual effects. Export losses of the opposing countries from the economic conflict are calculated and compared. The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has marked the choice of Ukraine to follow the European social and economic development model. It aimed at decreasing trade barriers, making reforms and engaging Ukraine in international production networks by foreign investment inflows. But the EU and Ukraine did not foresee the severe economic, political and military reaction of Russia, which is a barrier to efficient implementation of the Association Agreement. Decrease in exports to Russia and other CIS countries has not been offset by better access to the EU market. Severe reaction of Russia is politically motivated and is not substantiated economically. All the conflicting parties faced losses from the economic war. Ukraine and Russia were the most affected countries, while Western countries faced minor losses. Restoring cooperation and integration is not possible without changes in foreign policy of Russia or / and other parties.
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