No abstract

Objectives. The object of the research is the process of assessing the social development risks, which involves ranking the objects according to their degree of exposure to risk factors. As the subject of the study we designate the main weaknesses of the risk assessment methodology using risk index ratings in various fields based on a research of Russian and foreign scientific and practical experience. The purpose of the study is the formation of a set of theoretical principles that form the ground for improving the risk assessment methodology based on the construction of integrated risk index ratings.Methods. The main research method was a comparative analysis of the research results of foreign and Russian scientists on risk assessment in general and the formation of integrated risk indices in particular.Results. As a result of the study, the most significant weaknesses inherent in the risk assessment methodology were identified, and the failings of the use of risk index ratings for risk assessment from different angles were specified. Some identified failings are illustrated by the example of the UN World Risk Index calculation methodology. Recommendations to eliminate identified failings are formed, ordered in a logical sequence.Conclusions. As a result of the study it was established that the formulation of goals and objectives of assessing the social development risks substantially determines the assessment methodology and affects its results. In the case when the use of integrated risk index ratings meets the goals and objectives of the assessment, the subject of the assessment should take into account a number of fundamental methodological provisions that can significantly affect the assessment results, their objectivity and the adequacy to the problem being solved.The authors declare no conflict of interest

Научная новизна: авторами была сформирована гипотеза о наличии «ядра» доходов бюджета субъекта, сформированного за счет доходов с низкой вероятностью отклонений, высокой стабильностью поступлений, отражаемых в единой и непротиворечивой информационной базе и отражающей стрессоустойчивость экономики региона. Установлено, что состав «ядра» доходов таких регионов не соответствует критериям экономической целесообразности в интересах общественного развития и нуждается в корректировке. Практическая значимость: результаты исследования могут применяться в разработке направлений бюджетноналоговой политики, предусматривающих децентрализацию доходов бюджетной системы и внедрение рискменеджмента в секторе государственного управления.Ключевые слова: экономика и управление народным хозяйством; бюджеты субъектов РФ; бюджетные риски; налоговые риски; доходы бюджетов; «ядро» доходов; вероятность; уязвимость; стрессоустойчивость; управление рисками; безвозмездные поступления Благодарность: исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ в рамках научного проекта № 18-010-00124. Конфликт интересов: авторами не заявлен.Статья находится в открытом доступе в соответствии с Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), предусматривающем некоммерческое использование, распространение и воспроизводство на любом носителе при условии упоминания оригинала статьи.

The purpose of this study is to assess the prospects for the functioning of the Russian economy in the context of the imposed sanctions based on a generalization of international experience. Materials and methods. The main methods were a comparative analysis of the development of countries under sanctions restrictions and a retrospective analysis of the formation of oil and gas revenues in the Russian Federation. Results. Using the example of Iran, it has been established that a high share of oil and gas budget revenues and a favorable oil price environment allows maintaining the existing economic model, however, the tightening of sanctions is gradually having a more negative impact on the welfare of the population in Iran, as well as on the state of the country's budget. The paper also examines the measures taken by the Bank of Russia in 2022 in order to ensure the stability of the country's financial system; it was found that the impact of sanctions was largely delayed due to the focus of the European Union on the priority satisfaction of its own energy needs. Conclusions. The main result of the study is the position that in assessing the effect of sanctions on the development of oil-producing countries, it is necessary to assess the equivalence between import and export restrictions in order to further assess the private effects on the welfare of the population and budget losses. The stabilization of the exchange rate allows the Russian government to lock in inflation expectations for the moment and support consumption, but this comes at the expense of financial suppression of domestic development instruments. The consequences of such decisions in the medium term may be the fall of the ruble and further weakening of the ability to finance public spending.

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