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Using the method of statistical modeling of pipeline reliability, the statistical model for forecasting the dependence of the failure parameter of pipelines of main heating networks on the service life and diameter was developed and analyzed. This method includes two techniques. The first allows to obtain predictive dependences of pipeline reliability indicators for systems that include sections of different diameters with different service life periods and actual data on damage over several years. The second increases the correctness of the obtained dependences by optimizing the service life step in the study of damage to heat pipes. As a result of the study, the dependence of the reliability of main pipelines on the service life and diameter was established. The condition and forecast values of the specified indicator of reliability of main heat pipelines, and also dynamics and range of its changes are defined. The average value of the failure rate parameter increases from 0.23 1/km year (diameter 300 mm) to 0.62 1/km year (diameter 800 mm), which is 2.7 times larger than the pipes with the diameter 300 mm. The multiplicity of changes in the value of the parameter of the flow of failures was also established in accordance with the change in the diameter of the pipelines. According to the developed statistical model the dependence for calculation of the forecast of quantity of damages of the main heat pipelines according to their service life, diameter and length is established. This will increase the reliability of heating systems and effectively plan the cost of material, technical and labor resources. The given method can be used to assess the forecast of the reliability of pipelines, respectively, of their diameters for other engineering systems and networks

This article is devoted to improving the efficiency of planning the consumption of material and technical and labor resources and their appropriate planning for heating and non-heating periods, by months of the year based on the calculation of the estimated number of damage to heating pipes, based on the obtained dependences of failure rate. This task is modern and relevant especially in conditions of limited funding of engineering systems. The object of study - the district heating system. The subject of research - pipelines of thermal networks. The purpose of the work is to determine the distribution of damage to the heating network pipelines by months. The research method is statistical modeling of damages of heating network pipelines by months of the year for different terms of their operation. Currently, the reliable operation of district heating systems and their heating networks is one of the main factors in the livelihood of settlements. The reliability of heating network pipelines is determined by the reliability indicators obtained on the basis of data on the damage of heating pipelines. Studying the distribution of the number of damages of heating network pipelines by months depending on the service life of heating pipelines is necessary for effective planning of material, technical and labor resources. In order to increase the efficiency of planning of material and technical and labor resources, it is advisable to calculate the number of damages for the heating and unheated periods, by months of the year, by decades. The calculated dependences of the distribution of damage to the pipelines of heating networks for the heating and non-heating periods on a monthly basis, decadally, should take into account the service life of the pipelines. The results of the above research will save material, technical, labor and energy resources.

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