Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) provide a general model for decision-making under uncertainty in decentralized settings, but are difficult to solve optimally (NEXP-Complete). As a new way of solving these problems, we introduce the idea of transforming a Dec-POMDP into a continuous-state deterministic MDP with a piecewise-linear and convex value function. This approach makes use of the fact that planning can be accomplished in a centralized offline manner, while execution can still be decentralized. This new Dec-POMDP formulation, which we call an occupancy MDP, allows powerful POMDP and continuous-state MDP methods to be used for the first time. To provide scalability, we refine this approach by combining heuristic search and compact representations that exploit the structure present in multi-agent domains, without losing the ability to converge to an optimal solution. In particular, we introduce a feature-based heuristic search value iteration (FB-HSVI) algorithm that relies on feature-based compact representations, point-based updates and efficient action selection. A theoretical analysis demonstrates that FB-HSVI terminates in finite time with an optimal solution. We include an extensive empirical analysis using well-known benchmarks, thereby demonstrating that our approach provides significant scalability improvements compared to the state of the art.

Unavoidable dead-ends are common in many probabilistic planning problems, e.g. when actions may fail or when operating under resource constraints. An important objective in such settings is MaxProb, determining the maximal probability with which the goal can be reached, and a policy achieving that probability. Yet algorithms for MaxProb probabilistic planning are severely underexplored, to the extent that there is scant evidence of what the empirical state of the art actually is. We close this gap with a comprehensive empirical analysis. We design and explore a large space of heuristic search algorithms, systematizing known algorithms and contributing several new algorithm variants. We consider MaxProb, as well as weaker objectives that we baptize AtLeastProb (requiring to achieve a given goal probabilty threshold) and ApproxProb (requiring to compute the maximum goal probability up to a given accuracy). We explore both the general case where there may be 0-reward cycles, and the practically relevant special case of acyclic planning, such as planning with a limited action-cost budget. We design suitable termination criteria, search algorithm variants, dead-end pruning methods using classical planning heuristics, and node selection strategies. We design a benchmark suite comprising more than 1000 instances adapted from the IPPC, resource-constrained planning, and simulated penetration testing. Our evaluation clarifies the state of the art, characterizes the behavior of a wide range of heuristic search algorithms, and demonstrates significant benefits of our new algorithm variants.

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