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Abstract. The evolution of river morphology is very complicated to predict, especially in the case of mountain and Piedmont rivers with complex morphologies, steep slopes, and heterogeneous grain sizes such as the "Lac des Gaves" (LDG) reach, located within the Gave de Pau river in the Hautes-Pyrénées department, France, has precisely the complex morphological characteristics mentioned above. This reach has gone through severe sediment extractions for over 50 years, leading to the construction of two weirs for riverbed stabilisation. Two large floods resulted in changes in the LDG's hydromorphological characteristics as it went from a single channel river section to a braided river reach. In this study, a 2D hydromorphological model is developed with the TELEMAC-MASCARET system to reproduce the evolution of the channel following a flood that occurred in 2018. The model's validity is assessed by comparing the simulated topographic evolution to the observed one. The results reveal the challenge of choosing well-fitted sediment transport equations and friction laws that would make it possible to reproduce such complex morphology. Even if the exact localisation of the multiple channels forming the braided nature of the LDG was challenging to reproduce, our model could provide reliable volumetric predictions as it reproduces the filling of the LDG correctly. The influence of the two weirs on the river's current and future morphology is also studied. The aim is to provide decision-makers with more reliable predictions to design suitable restoration measures for the LDG reach.

Through the diversity of criteria and stakes, the uncertain nature of the entailed phenomena and the multi‐scale aspects to be taken into account, a river restoration project can be considered as a complex problem. Integrative approaches and modelling tools are thus needed to help river managers make predictions on the evolution of hydromorphological, socio‐economic, safety and ecological issues. Such approach can provide valuable information for handling long‐term management plans that consider the interaction and the balance of stakeholders interests and river system functioning. In this paper, we present a probabilistic participatory modelling (PM) method that assesses the effects of given restoration actions, knowing the hydromorphological modifications that they may induce on the safety, ecological and socio‐economic aspects with the help of local stakeholders through several workshops. To support this strategy, we used Bayesian networks (BNs) as modelling tools as their causal graphs can combine multidimensional knowledge and data from diverse natures. We introduce the causal graphs elaborated with the help of the stakeholders and convert it into BNs that can assist restoration decisions by considering the available decision and utility functions to provide guidance to decision‐makers. This was applied to the “Lac des Gaves” reach in the Hautes‐Pyrénées, France, a reach that has gone through severe sediment extractions for over 50 years. Each network represents possible restoration decisions linked to one of the observed issues. The paper demonstrates how BNs used as a decision support system (DSS) can help to assess the influence of given management strategies on the river system with the consideration of stakeholders’ knowledge and integration in all the modelling process.

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