Randomised controlled trials have shown that the policy of mammographic screening confers a substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality. This has often been accompanied, however, by an increase in breast cancer incidence, particularly during the early years of a screening programme, which has led to concerns about overdiagnosis, that is to say, the diagnosis of disease that, if left undetected and therefore untreated, would not become symptomatic. We used incidence data from two randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening, the Swedish Two-county Trial and the Gothenburg Trial, to establish the timing and magnitude of any excess incidence of invasive disease and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the study groups, to ascertain whether the excess incidence of DCIS reported early in a screening trial is balanced by a later deficit in invasive disease and provide explicit estimates of the rate of 'real' and non-progressive 'overdiagnosed' tumours from the study groups of the trials. We used a multistate model for overdiagnosis and used Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters. After taking into account the effect of lead time, we estimated that less than 5% of cases diagnosed at prevalence screen and less than 1% of cases diagnosed at incidence screens are being overdiagnosed. Overall, we estimate overdiagnosis to be around 1% of all cases diagnosed in screened populations. These estimates are, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results suggest that overdiagnosis in mammography screening is a minor phenomenon, but further studies with very large numbers are required for more precise estimation.
IntroductionRandomised controlled trials have shown that the policy of mammographic screening confers a substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality [1][2][3]. There is continuing interest in the human costs associated with the mortality benefit, in particular, whether overdiagnosis occurs in breast cancer screening and, if so, its magnitude [4,5]. In this context, overdiagnosis means the diagnosis of cancer as a result of screening, usually histologically confirmed, that would not have arisen clinically during the lifetime of the host had screening not taken place.When a mammographic screening programme is initiated, usually a large increase in breast cancer incidence is observed in the early years of the programme, and a relatively small increase later [4,6]. This in itself is not sufficient to imply overdiagnosis, for the following reasons: 1. In most parts of the world, breast cancer incidence was increasing prior to the epoch of mammography. Thus at least part of any excess incidence observed in the screening epoch is probably due to an existing increasing trend in incidence. 2. In addition, the early diagnosis of cancers due to lead time may exacerbate the underlying temporal increase by bringing forward in time future higher rates of disease. 3. In relation to this, screening also causes an artificial increase in age-specific ...